Tuesday, December 8, 2020

MSM Pollster Absurdity Continues; "Pollster Got it Right With Aid of Hindu Chanting"

In the latest in the media apologia for the polls, which ranges from Nate Silver;  The polls were bad but not that bad" to The Spectator determining one pollster "got it right."

The determination is that, via arcane methodology involving  "data analysis, which mainly includes weighting data and incorporating a likely voter model. Weighing data allows pollsters to ensure demographics are properly represented in the poll. Likely voter models" Raghavan Mayur the IBD/TIPP  pollster works his data analysis under the inspiration of spiritual guidance.

 "Mayur conducts most of the data analysis on his own. Although, he said he is guided spiritually, especially during the height of the election. He often works while listening to the Gayatri mantra, which is considered by many Hindus to be the most holy mantra in the world.

Mayur is absolutely correct in his view of other pollsters and their inherent leftism or pay for play;

 "There are two main groups in the polling industry, according to Mayur: media and academia. The most prominent polls tend to have huge media companies or universities behind them, such as ABC News or Quinnipiac University. There’s no shortage of funding, he said, so there’s less of an incentive for precision.

‘A smaller pollster like me has to survive,’ he told The Spectator. ‘And the only way to survive is to perform. If I don’t perform, my media partner will not sponsor me. If you’re hungry, you bring a certain type of insight than if you’re well-fed.’

Another issue, he suggested, is a liberal bias among pollsters, which he compared to that of the mainstream media as a whole. This, he said, leads many pollsters to think less critically about their data when it is skewed towards a Democratic candidate.

‘Most of my colleagues are liberal,’ he told The Spectator. ‘So when they see a result that shows 10 points for Biden, they say “great! Let’s run with it.” They’re living in a bubble — a liberal bubble.

To his credit-yes;  The final IBD/TIPP poll on the morning of Election Day had Biden winning by 4 percent, which is spot on" IBD/TIPP final Likely Voter Biden 50%  Trump 46% Margin of error 3.2.

But The Spectator fudges the history, there being no way the MSM approved pollsters turd can be polished 

"Since 2004, he’s correctly predicted the winner of each presidential election, being declared the most accurate in 2012 and now again in 2020." This conveniently leaves out 2016 where IBD/TIPP "Correctly predicted the winner."

They got Trump being the "winner" in the popular vote which prediction was way off- Clinton preposterously so.

Actual 2016 final;  Clinton 48.2   Trump  46.1 Johnson 4.7     Stein 1.1

IBD/TIPP Tracking MOE 3.1 1026 LV Clinton 43%  Trump 45% Johnson 8% Stein 2% 

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