Friday, December 4, 2020

RCP Headlines Trafalgar Georgia Poll; A Go To Pollster, The End For Nate Silver et al

 Real Clear Politics front pages the latest Trafalgar poll for the upcoming Georgia senate races;

GA (Trafalgar): Loeffler (R) 50, Warnock (D) 45 | Ossoff (D) 48, Perdue (R) 47

This was a spot previously reserved for the Nate Silver go to polls like Quinnipiac and NYTimes/Sienna and marks the end of Nate, the other Nate  and the previously "A" rated polls by Silver's 538 site.

It is a new polling world with Trafalgar, Rasmussen and Big Data Polling the only credible pollsters after yet again another previously mainstream pollsters debacle.

Looking at the Trafalgar result it appears that Warnock may have bee the poorest choice for the Dems with his carrying so much baggage. That Ossoff is, at this point marginally ahead by 0.7 percent over Purdue reflects the presidential result (so far) in Georgia almost exactly.

With a 4.7 percent undecided, perhaps reflecting the Libertarian vote from the November result it looks likely there will be at least a 51 member GOP senate with every possibility of it being 52/48

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