Friday, November 25, 2011

Coming Economic Collapse:Palin's Wisdom Not Running 2012 To Be 2016 Saviour

If this article "Beginning of  New Credit Crunch, Trouble Ahead for Global Economy"  at "Market Oracle" is even half correct in its economic analyses, then the points made will have a massive impact on the American political structure over the years ahead.

But let there be no doubt, the U.S. economy is going to get a lot worse in the years ahead.
Just because you have a job today does not mean that you will have one tomorrow.
Just because you have a nice car and a big home today does not mean that you will have them tomorrow.
We all need to try to become a lot less dependent on "the system", because "the system" is failing.
A whole lot of trouble is coming.
You better get ready.

The financial analysis which supports these conclusions is measured, not hysterical or histrionic, and is fact based and well worth reading and considering.

It is interesting to note that many of the experts quoted don't have a dog in the hunt, i.e. they are either not connected with making money from financial sales or, if they are connected with the retail side of the finance industry, they would be expected to be promoting the sunny optimistic aspects-which they clearly are not.

If the projected economic downturn happens at anywhere the level posited, then it could put in place a massive sea change in the American political scene. If the economy stays at the current level there is just enough activity, allied with the incumbents usual advantages, to see President Obama re-elected.

 His margin of victory would depend on whom the GOP selects of course. If Romney, then Obama should have a comfortable win as conservatives stay at home, if Gingrich, it could be very close and similar to G.W. Bush's re-election margins against Kerry.

If before the 2012 election the economy turns down further, then whomever the GOP nominates will more than likely win. However, even in such an economic environment the margin would be close with Virginia/Colorado/Ohio/N. Carolina/Florida all having to return to the Republicans.

But whoever wins in 2012 will, according to the Market Oracle economic outlook, be faced with a disastrous financial environment. If Obama, the re-election good will  "honeymoon" would be one of the shortest ever seen. 

If the Republican, the honeymoon would be longer but, as has been seen recently with elected governments in Europe, would end sooner or later. Then with the previous, and subsequent orthodox administrations being seen as failures, the public will be ready to look for alternatives.

There are two. The Keynesian, Krugman, money printing alternative is not included in this scenario as it will have been utterly discredited. The first realistic alternative is a new third party. 

It is entirely possible that a populist with a large personal fortune, a Bloomberg or a Trump, could create a substantial third party, and there is a viable electoral college path to victory for such a creation. 

The actual chance for such a party to win is, in reality, very low given the historic attachment many have to the two major groupings, and it would probably take at least two campaigns to achieve a majority.

The second, and more realistic alternative, is for a populist, who already has a substantial measure of public support, and who has managed successfully in an administrative framework, to lead the GOP into the 2016 election. 

It would not matter if there was a Republican president elected in 2012, as by 2016 they would be discredited, and either would not run in 2016 or would be defeated in the convention for re-nomination. The party would, sensibly, realize that a re-nomination would lead to a disastrous electoral result.

With a massive recession, the Democrat's discredited, a Republican president in a similar situation, the public would be ready to embrace a true conservative with proven experience. The wisdom of Palin not running in 2012, but being the new Cincinattus (or Washington or de Gaulle) in 2016 with be apparent to all.

No comments :