Thursday, November 24, 2011

The Only Blog To Predict Gingrich's Rise "It's Gingrich,Or A Trump 3rd Party Run/Obama Win"

Back in early October, an eternity in politics where, as Harold Wilson said, a week is a lifetime, this blog predicted that, at the height of the Perry/Cain booms that both would falter and that Gingrich would shortly become the front runner.

At that point I felt that I would not support any candidate except Palin, but given that she is adamant she will not run I decided that I would vote for Gingrich and no other.

All the predictions and analysis are at the links indicated.To fully consider the tenor of what is presented here it is suggested this article is best considered by reviewing them.

It was further presented that a Palin/Gingrich alliance was forming with goodwill coming from both quarters. The explanation for Gingrich's poll surge, which so puzzled the Hot Air team at the time was explained to them and the future course of the GOP nominating campaign was clearly set out.

All has unfolded exactly as premised and will continue to do so. The fact that Gingrich is starting to come under attack from the right and left, and that conservative writers of note e.g. Prof. Jacobson and the insightful Josh Painter have subsequently followed my analysis, as has the  belatedly, and to their surprise, the mainstream media, supports the Gingrich scenario.

Palin will endorse Gingrich, and the momentum from that endorsement would ensure his nomination if the Beltway establishment comes to their senses. 

A Gingrich/Palin team would easily win in 2012, as this electoral college map indicates. Palin may choose not to run again, but a Gingrich victory would still be almost certain if he chooses McDonnell from Virginia-Virginia being the key state as Florida is a certainty.

Should the Beltway/country club establishment so work to bring about a Gingrich defeat they will not only  ensure Donald Trump's entry as a third party candidate, but they may very well ensure the breakup of the Republican Party. Margaret Carlson's attempted, but futile attempt to destroy Gingrich, is an example of what is coming

Trump has made it very clear that if the GOP "nominates a weak candidate" he will run. The message that Romney is perceived as the weak candidate is obvious, whereas he would not run against Gingrich, and especially Gingrich/Palin. 

If he makes a third party run (which he could win) the GOP will splinter into conservative/Beltway groups and it make take two or three elections before a conservative party wins the white house. In the meantime the Democrat's will have 8-12 years of executive power.

If not Gingrich then, with Romney as the nominee, for the GOP as with Louis XV “Après Mitt, le déluge” 

The only way to avoid the death of the Republican Party in that scenario would be for a Romney run to be blocked and a subsequent convention with no candidate having enough support for the nomination. At that point Palin could be drafted which would hold the party together. 

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