If I may say so the articles below;
("Bush/Palin 2016: the GOP's Only Chance?" and "Bush and Palin 2016 A Historic Compromise/"
are quite prescient. What I did not foresee, and I daresay neither did anyone else, was the rise of Donald Trump and the decline, perhaps irrevocably, of Jeb Bush.
The only major change I would make would be my then avowed determination not to vote, again, if Palin was not on the ticket or did not, enthusiastically, (i.e. unlike "anyone but Obama in 2012) endorse a candidate. I will now happily vote for Donald Trump, who has indicted he would "love to have Governor Palin in his cabinet" if he is elected president, which statement will do in lieu of her being his VP if that were the case.
As for Jeb if he is at the "McCain point" in his campaign then he doesn't have the fall back support of being a recognized candidate of quality and campaign experience that McCain had get him into the lead at his low point. What he does have open to him is the other McCain option.
When McCain was polling well behind Senator Obama in a time of massively anti-President Bush feeling, and when Obama's Democratic convention coronation seemed to seal the deal was the brilliant "rogue tactic of calling then Governor Sarah palin in Wasilla and offering her the vice-presidential slot.The rest is history, Palin's roof raising speech, the stunned media and Democratic party and, within days McCain taking the lead over Obama in a huge poll leap.That the economy collapsed a few weeks later and McCain, oddly, suspended his campaign (Steve Schmidt take a bow) saw him go straight behind Obama in the polls from which position he never was ahead again. The Palin haters, not least from McCain's "team" perpetuated the myth that "Palin cost McCain the presidency." This idiocy has been refuted by at least four major academic studies and poll analysis.
Newt Gingrich in his struggling campaign in 2012 stated "I would consider Governor Palin as my vice-president. This immediately galvanized his campaign (Palin voted for him in the Alaska primary) and her supporters got behind him. That Gingrich's campaign collapsed had nothing to do with Palin and everything to do with Gingrich blowing his massive momentum out of South Carolina with a dreadful effort in Florida from which he never recovered.
The point is that for both campaigns Palin lit a spark and in the case of the McCain campaign as Biden said to him "you would have been elected John if it were not for the crash."
Does Jeb have it in him to contact Governor Palin? It is now past the point where a simple "I could work with Palin or some such" would carry any weight. A strong reaching out with a definite commitment to her would stand the campaign on its ear,give the media a massive amount to chew on and suck all the air out of the other candidates rooms and would, in one moment, destroy the "Tired, beaten down Jeb"meme.
Would Palin respond with an endorsement? It really would not matter as if she simply was polite and open with Jeb, as she was in her OAN interview with him then she could see how things played out. The ball is in Jeb's court if he continues on as he has recently he is, surely, done.
I can't think of any other game changer for him and others are leapfrogging ahead of him. A Trump and Palin team has extraordinary benefits as set out below (once the dust cleared) will Jeb go for it or will he be the next out the door-it is that black and white.
Let's talk political reality first. To the question "can the GOP win in 2016?" The answer is "yes, but only if they win Florida." If by 9 pm on election night 2016 the early results indicate Florida has gone to the Democrat, then Republicans of all stripes could simply turn off their televisions, as there would be no path to victory in the Electoral College.
Would Jeb Bush have as good a chance, or better, than any other prospective GOP candidate? Most certainly he might. As a popular Governor of Florida, married to a Hispanic, and who garnered a good proportion of the Hispanic vote, Bush would be in a strong position to carry the state.
And then did an update in December 2014
Bush And Palin 2016 A Historic Compromise? (And Three Questions For Jeb)
I wrote the article "Bush-Palin 2016 The GOP's Only Chance? which appeared,with much controversy, at American Thinker" in June 2013. With Jeb Bush all but certain to be a candidate. With his announcement of "actively" exploring a 2016 run the article becomes not only prescient, but the questions raised are of some major import in my opinion.
Nothing has changed in respect of the, to use the most moderate word I can, "caution" among conservatives about Bush and other Establishment figures e.g Christie and Romney. One thing has also not changed, if Governor Palin took an antipathetic attitude to Jeb to the point of advising her millions of followers not to vote for him (by name) or, even worse for his prospects went 3rd party, his chances would be diminished to say the least.
On the other hand, if Palin did not run there is nothing Bush could do to affect her or her following so she holds a significant hand in the matter.
With that in mind there are three significant questions that could be raised with Governor Bush;
1."If Governor Palin does not run for president would you invite her to be a major guest speaker at the 2016 GOP convention?
2.Would you see a major role-perhaps Energy Secretary- role for Governor Palin in your cabinet if elected?
3. Would you put Governor Palin high on your list of possible running mates If she is not a candidate for president?
Of course, if Governor Palin does mount a presidential campaign these questions would go on the back burner, but if Jeb won the nomination, then there is no escaping them, unless he wishes not to have her endorsement and her followers votes (and how did that work out for Romney?)
As a well known Palin supporter right from the start I stand by my call for a historic compromise.
But if Governor Palin is not on the ticket, and it is not iron clad certain that points 1/2/3 would be implemented, or she doesn't endorse the nominee early (unlike her late Romney “endorsement” of “anyone but Obama") I will sit out 2016 and am certain I would not be alone.
On the other hand if the 2016 ticket is any combination of Bush/Palin, or Governor Bush answers questions 1-3 positively and Governor
Palin doesn't run endorses him wholeheartedly, then I will vote for Bush (or whomever she may alternatively endorse) unhesitatingly.
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