Saturday, June 20, 2020

Axios; 27 Point "Extremely Excited To Vote For Trump" Enthusiasm Gap Over Biden

First the toplines;

 It's an "All Voters" poll with Trump Approval 43% and a 10 point Biden lead over Trump 53% to 43%. There's no indication of the Dem/Rep/Ind respondents demographics and, as always, a Dem  bias over 4 points can be taken for granted. 

We can say with confidence that even with whatever split Axios used a Likely Voters result would have Trump at least at 47% approval as per Rasmussen and the 10 point Biden lead close to +4 which with the California/NY/Il distortion would basically have the Electoral College on par with 2016 bearing in mind this poll was taken June 13th-17th with the inflamed racial situation at its height in the media.

But for all that Trump's GOP support is at 93%

"For all the apparent polling momentum for Biden, anyone anticipating a vastly different electoral outcome this November has to contend with a stark reality: President Trump’s 2016 voters are solidly behind his re-election. Despite months of upheaval, Trump’s 2016 coalition is undented and also fired up for the campaign ahead. 

Not only are his 2016 voters overwhelmingly supporting this time around (96% indicate they’d vote for him over Biden), 70% strongly approve of the job he’s doing as president (93% overall approval), and 57% are “extremely excited” about voting for him in November. Contrast that to a scant 33% of 2016 Clinton voters who are that enthusiastic about voting for Biden this year."

And, as always ITES;

"Fully 50% of Trump voters single out jobs and the economy as the most critical set of issues right now, more than double the proportion of Biden voters so focused on these concerns. For Trump voters, no other issue reaches into double-digits."

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