Tuesday, June 2, 2020

The Election Has Been Decided

2016 showed that the election had been decided four months before election day and all the debates, GOTV, campaigning, "October Surprise grab em," media bias, celebrity and newspaper endorsements multi-millions spent on attack adverts accusations of racism, sexism and all other "isms" were just " a tale told by an idiot full of sound and fury signifying nothing."

Political scientist academics who put their reputations on the line unlike media pundits who can make up the most preposterous predictions for their bubble and who never have to pay a reputation price, predicted the 2016 election result almost exactly to the decimal point and in July.

So where are we at in 2020? According to the latest CBS.YouGov poll of Trump/Biden voting intentions
the election, or at least the popular vote result has been more or less determined.

75% of registered voters have decided who they will vote for and that's appears to be that. A further 19% are "strong, probably won't change, thus 94% of voters have made their minds up leaving 6% floating and of that group 5% are "somewhat strong."

 It is that around 6%, as in 2016 who can determine who wins in November depending how/if they break late.Historically a sitting president gets the nod, on the other hand in a recession those in office get tossed and late breakers go for the challenger.

Voters decisions are impossible to predict at this point as an improving economy after all the turmoil should be a major plus for Trump. 

In the poll 72%  of likely voters said the economy would be a "major factor" in how they voted and the trustworthiness of the two contenders in managing the economy will weigh on voters at as they vote. In comparison 52% said the coronavirus would be a major factor in their voting intentions

In the head to head likely voters result Biden leads Trump by four points 47% to 43% with 4% choosing third party and 5% not sure. This is at the low end for Biden and he, like Hillary, is well under 50%. As usual there is no breakdown of the Dem/Rep/Ind demographics-if history is the guide it would favor the Dems. Possibly highly significantly Trump is winning Indies by 5 points 42% to 37%

The poll also underestimates Trump strength with Blacks 6%  and Hispanics 25%. He won them 8% and 29% respectively in 2016 and there is no possibility this polls results for them reflect reality as all aggregate of polling shows Trump well above his previous result with them. Interestingly 25% indicated Trump's polices "favors Blacks."

Today's Monmouth Poll  (with its ridiculous demographics;  GOP 27% Dem 31% Indie 41%) has Trump's support "Blacks 14% Hispanics 32% which is in line with most polling. 

If history is our guide political junkies can ignore the heart stopping sensational "breaking" and polling media circus as the cake is effectively baked until the 5-6% make their decision in the last week of the campaign.

No comments: