Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Dem Pollster Cedes The Election To Trump

RCP advises that "Change Research" is a Dem polling company, you can find their poll analysis with its heavy D bias here. Going through their toplines they state a D and R respondent basis as even.

 Looking deeper they have the male/female split as Female 55%  Male 45% which is way out of line and skews their results to the Dems as women are currently polling more Dem than GOP by a wide margin in some polls.

Realigning their results with a 51/49 split would of course bring the GOP result higher. But even as it stands to have Trump 4 points up in Pennsylvania, ahead in Arizona and tied in Wisconsin is telling. Down one in North Carolina (Harper an R pollster has Trump up 3 in NC) two in Michigan and three in Florida are effectively Trump ahead if the demographics were anywhere near correct. 

Pennsylvania is the key result here and mirrors the primaries where in the on the day result the GOP outperformed the Dems even though the mail in ballot requests were heavily skewed to the Dems. If Trump wins the state then he can afford to lose both Michigan and Wisconsin.

"Trump is actually performing better in bucks s county, Pennsylvania, than he is

he’s at 94.48% there compared to 94.36% statewide statewide in the gop primary so far
bucks is an important swing county that clinton won by a point in 2016 

republican turnout in the pennsylvania primaries has been *much* stronger than expected
trump supporters turned out in droves for in-person voting primary votes cast so far republican 646k democratic 593k"

In passing Fox, being silly has Biden up 9 in Wisconsin 4 in Arizona  and 2 in Ohio which is not worth commetning on further nor Quinnipiac's "Texas Trump +1"

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