Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Latest Polling Scenario Confirms Palin The 2012 Nominee

The latest PPP Polling of Republican in 2012 nomination states shows, once again, that the party rank and file prefer the overt representatives of clearly professed Christian values i.e. Palin and Huckabee as their 2012 nominee for president.

The poll numbers are as follows;

Iowa:                        Huckabee 27%/Palin 17%/Gingrich/16%
                                  Romney 15%

South Carolina:       Gingrich 25%/Romney 24%/Palin 22%
                                  Huckabee 19%

Michigan:                 Romney 37%/Palin 24%/Gingrich 16%
                                  Huckabee 12%

If it is assumed that Palin chooses to run and Huckabee does not, which is a perfectly valid assumption well within the bounds of probability, and the bulk, if not all, of Huckabee's support transfers to Palin, we get the following;

Iowa:                       Palin  44%   Gingrich 16%  Romney  15%
South Carolina:      Palin  41%   Gingrich 25%  Romney  24%
Michigan:               Palin  36%   Romney  37%  Gingrich 16%

Tactically Iowa could be even stronger for Palin as on caucus day Romney supporters seeing their man having no chance might choose to shift to vote with Palin's supporters to keep Gingrich out. Even if they shifted 100% to Gingrich they would fail to eliminate Palin so it makes more sense to eliminate a potential rival in Gingrich which would be feasible.

In Michigan Gingrich's voters might also choose to vote tactically if on election day they are still way behind, and vote for Palin to remove the Romney threat later in industrial and more liberal states e.g. California.

If the Palin/Huckabee scenario holds true for states where she runs well but is not in front, allied to those states-Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina where the latest polling has her in first place, then the nomination is hers if she chooses to run.

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