Here are some of the 20 major pundits who prognosticated, some with in-depth reasoning and charts, that Mitt Romney would be elected president. This is detailed purely as reflection on the value of partisan crystal ball gazing and whether media commentators should be taken seriously-even if from ones own political party.
By the way-this person made a challenge to put up or shut up before the election. Since I did, last week, at THIS LINK
I can mock, or rather make a point, with impunity.
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With thanks to the Votemaster
What do conservatives think? The Denver Post has collected map sfrom eight conservative map makers. Here are the electoral vote scores they are predicting.
| Pundit | Obama | Romney |
| Dick Morris | 213 | 325 |
| George Will | 217 | 321 |
| Michael Barone | 223 | 315 |
| Dean Chambers | 227 | 311 |
| Andrew Beyer | 254 | 284 |
| Karl Rove | 259 | 279 |
| Ben Domenech | 260 | 278 |
| Leslie Sanchez | 263 | 275 |
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http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/01c7686e-00ff-4a27-ac09-f6f83a4c4bd7
Here's Hugh Hewitt's money quotes:
"You can feel, and see, the energy draining from the Obama campaign even as it swells on the the Romney/Ryan siide(sic) "
"As I discussed with Rubin last night, the Obama campaign resembles nothing so much as John McCain's did at this point in 2008 --aware of its pending defeat, but struggling on and hoping for some enormous "game changer" to arrive. The discipline and professionalism of Team Romney minimizes that possibility, and the experience of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan will prevent unforced errors."
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Larry Kudlow at Real Clear Politics on election day is optimistic for Romney:
"Romney's Optimism Will Win"
Money quote: "I believe Mitt Romney is the optimist, and Barack Obama is the pessimist. It’s Romney’s election to win"
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http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-romney-will-win_660391.html
Fred Barnes at The Weekly Standard had no doubts:
"Why Romney Will Win" and after reviewing the campaign he makes this categoric statement;
"Conclusion: Romney will be elected the 45th president of the United States."
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Charlie Martin, writing at PJ Media Tatler, today predicted that Governor Romney would win sufficient popular votes for a 341 to 197 electoral vote victory over President Obama. Note the limited extent to which his projection refers to polling results.
********************************************************************************"All, or nearly all, states in which the poll on Romney/Obama is even within the margin of error will go for Romney. My reasoning is this:
- All these samples seem to me to still imply a greater D turnout than R. Nearly all actual reported early voting has been heavily Republican, plus we have the Washington Post polling on defectors. So it seems very probable that the actual turnout will be favoring Republicans, possibly heavily.
- The “Sandy” debacle isn’t making Obama’s administration look good. This may not mean more votes for Romney (although it could), but it may well depress Democrat voters on Tuesday.
- Romney/Ryan are drawing tens of thousands, Obama/Biden thousands or hundreds. Again, this indicates greater enthusiasm and suggests greater Republican turnout"
Electoral College
Romney: 321
Obama: 217Popular Vote
Romney 49.7
Obama: 48.4
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R.Emmett Tyrrell Jr. at The American Spectator AT THIS LINK
"Au Revoir, Mr. President"
Best quote: "Next week President Obama goes into retirement. I hope he will consider Hawaii"
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Not quite a presidential prediction but an interesting one
Tom Ridge: Romney Will Win Pennsylvania
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"Dick Morris: Romney Will Win In A "Landslide"
The wonderful Dick Morris in full flight
DICK MORRIS: In Florida, the [New York] Times says Obama is going to win by 1. But their sample has 7 points more Democrats than Republicans.
Pollster John McLaughlin and I went through the actual results of the last four elections and on average, the Republicans had 1% more than the Democrats. So that poll is off by a factor of 8. So instead of Obama winning by 1, Romney would win Florida by 7.
In Ohio, Obama is shown winning by 5 in the Times poll. But they had 8 points more Democrats than Republicans and historically, there are only two points more Ds than Rs. So that's 6 points off. So instead of Romney losing by 5, he wins Ohio by 1.
And in Virginia, they have Obama winning by 2. But they have 8 points more Democrats than Republicans and historically there's one points more Republican than Democrat. That's off by a factor of 9, Romney wins Virginia by 7.
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Not a 100% election winning prediction but halfway there from Joann Weiner at the Washington Post
"Why Romney will win the popular vote"
Best equivocation comment:
"If the economy’s all that matters, then Romney’s set to win the popular vote. But, that’s not all that matters. For Gov. Romney to become President Romney he must reach 270 electoral votes. And, that’s no sure thing."
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Mary Cate Cary at US News & World report has no such wishy washy prediction qualms
"Why Mitt Romney Will Win"
Best quote: "If you want to know who is winning an election, look at who is winning independents. Obama has lost them.
Romney has won the mainstream. "
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Here the very positive Rich Galen at Town Hall AT THIS LINK
"Romney Will Win"
Best quote: "The Romney campaign has prepared for the end game and over the next five days will show that their ground game strategy and tactics were better than the Obama campaign's.
The tide of history is running against Barack Obama and, as the English King Canute said in about 1016 when he proved even with all his power he could not hold back the tide:"
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Michael Hudome at The daily Caller AT THIS LINK very confidently predicts an early night for everyone:
"Romney will win Pennsylvania"
Really good quote:
"Despite all the hype, it’s going to be a short election night. The Keystone State is the key reason. Pennsylvania will go for Governor Mitt Romney.
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Michael Barone Senior political analyst (sic) does it wishy washy style but nevertheless goes for a Romney win at The Washington Examiner AT THIS LINK
"Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily"
Best prediction:-Romney will win all these states
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.
Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.
Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.
Iowa (6)
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"I am more interested in connecting the polls to history and the long-run structure of American politics, and when I do that I see a Romney victory. "
Morning Jay: Why Romney Is Likely to Win
Followed by this quote:
"I think Mitt Romney is likely to win next Tuesday.
For two reasons:
(1) Romney leads among voters on trust to get the economy going again.
(2) Romney leads among independents."
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Here's the emphatic Dan McLaughlin at REDSTATE
AT THIS LINK
"Why I Think Obama Is Toast"
and the money quote, Including actual toast
"Conclusion
The waterfront of analyzing all the factors that go into my conclusion here is too large to cover in one post, but the signs of Obama’s defeat are too clear now to ignore"
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It is almost unfair of course to include Karl Rove in this compendium as, of course, what was he expected to say. However for the record here is the whiteboard kings prediction.From THIS LINK
By KARL ROVE
It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.
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