Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Financial Markets "Slammed" Post Election.If Slammed Day Before Romney Wins? Financiers Happy With Bernanke Printing Press/Their Candidate

Well Mr. Walayat,as below, got it exactly right as far as the election is concerned and the unemployment rate figures too. What I think he left out was a note about financial "powers that be" who brought the big post election day share market drop today, which if it had happened the day before the election would have changed the result dramatically. 

Stocks slammed 

All the reasons the financial analysts give for the huge drop in the markets were in place on November 5th and the markets could have dropped then but the financiers chose Obama, as they did in 2008 and we will have to live with the results which Palin describes, probably prophetically as as 'catastrophic".

I am not a conspiracy theorist, just a realist, as are the independent financial commentators like Mr Walayat and the others at The Market Oracle who have given insights into the "men behind the screen'. Thus I ask the question as to whether or not the 2008 crash-just before the election, had some degree of deliberate creation as to its timing so a Democrat who would allow Bernanke's printing press unlimited power would be elected.

Here is a previous post regarding the possibility of an engineered share market crash before the election. The reality turned out to be that the financial controllers are happy with the printing press. The crash may come now or in the near future instead.

With the addition of Sarah Palin to the ticket in 2008 the McCain campaign, which was lagging in the polls overtook candidate Obama. The left, and GOP turncoats, who after the 2008 election blamed Palin for McCain's loss, now advise that "the VP selection doesn't influence anyone's votes". 

Even if that is the case for Independents, there is no doubt whatsoever that Palin motivated the GOP voters, who had been lukewarm to McCain, to support the ticket.

If the massive stock market collapse had not happened the one can speculate, surely with a  fair degree of certainty, that the election would have been a lot closer, if not won by McCain/Palin. 

If there had been no crash, no McCain "campaign suspension" then it would seem unlikely that Indiana and North Carolina would have gone to Obama. Further, Florida and Ohio were lost to McCain by a slim margin-under the worst possible electoral conditions, and may well have gone to him otherwise.With those states, and only three other states Bush won in 2004, Virginia/Iowa/Colorado. McCain would have won.

Therefore President Obama owes his election, in no small part (or at least the large size of it) to the stock market crash of 2008. If, with the polls showing a fragile lead in the Electoral College for Obama now (and his being behind in the popular vote polls) after his disastrous debate performance, the share market crashed before the election then Romney stands every chance of a landslide victory.

Is such a crash possible?

Here is the latest snapshot of the share market from 
Reuters via Yahoo Finance

Wall Street posts worst week since June, banks weigh

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks wrapped up their worst week in four months, led lower on Friday by financial shares as results from Wells Fargo and JPMorgan ignited concerns about shrinking profit margins for big lenders."If we keep getting negative reports, selling will pick up," The S&P 500 closed right above its 50-day moving average, barely enough to avoid going into the weekend with a technical red flag hanging over the market."

Here is the technical analysis from Anthony Cherniawski at the noted financial news accumulation site "Market Oracle" from England: 

Stock Market Crash Starts Here

"Well, folks, it appears that the market is going full circle.  Sunday is day 1,314 from the March 9, 2009 low.  Obviously the market cannot bottom on Sunday, but it appears that the crash scenario is getting more and more serious.  The Head & Shoulders neckline at 1430.75 and the Orthodox Broadening Top trendline await us just below current levels. According to Chris Carolan’s work, today and Monday are the designated panic days, while Tuesday and Wednesday may be the mop-up days for waves (4)-(5) and [4]-[5].  This is the way I see it at the present juncture.  All we need is to trigger the two sell signals and the trap door open"

This article comes after his previous days analysis which includes this quote 

Stock Market Pop and Drop

"This suggests that after a brief rally (which may already be over), the market resumes its downward spiral."

It would be ironic if a crash like 2008's happened just before the election, and Obama, who promised so much resulting from an economic calamity, went out by the same mechanism he came in by. In point of fact the economy, unemployment wise at least, is not better than when he came in with such promise and that, in itself, irrespective of whether a crash happens or not, may, or should, be enough to see him defeated.


Here is my pre-election post on Mr.Walayat

The widely read ( at "The Market Oracle") and controversial economic commentator Nadeem Walayat headlines his predictions for the American presidential election in typically forthright fashion-with no equivocation or Etch-a Sketch flip flopping.

"Who Will Win the U.S. Presidential Election, Forecast 2012"

And here is his prediction-note too his prediction for the US unemployment rate at 7.9% which is exactly bang on.

"So whilst all eyes are on misleading highly erroneous opinion polls that give the illusion of a close race, and on which way Ohio goes, as things stand my forecast remains for President Obama to be re-elected on November 6th with the probability favouring more than 300 electoral votes i.e. there has been no net change since the release of September jobs report as the trend continues to build towards Obama increasing the real events based gap between himself and Mitt Romney by election day, enough to push through the 300 barrier, with or without Ohio and even a bad October Jobs report of a rate above 8% (I expect 7.9%), will not have enough time behind it to create enough momentum to make much impact at such a late stage."

The main reason why Walayat predicts President Obama will be re-elected with what is a landslide majority at +300 Electoral College votes is exactly the same reason as I predict -Romney's 47% speech and what killed his chances irrevocably, his poor debate performance subsequent to his major debate win in the Denver debate.

Here is Walayat again: 

"The bottom line is that Romney failed to re-ignite the momentum that built up following he first debate that was halted by the 6th October Unemployment report, instead his performance during subsequent debates has been weaker than Obama's and therefore the election really was lost by Mitt Romney during mid September following the 47% video, which crippled his chance of ever taking the lead as I correctly suggested at the time (19 Sep 2012 - The Day Mitt Romney Lost the U.S. Presidential Election 2012, Youtube Fund Raising Video)"

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