Friday, November 2, 2012

Links To Top Pundits (Morris/Barone Et Al) Who Said Romney Would Be Elected President

Here are some of the major pundits who prognosticated, with in-depth reasoning and charts that Mitt Romney would be elected president. This is detailed purely as reflection on the value of partisan crystal ball gazing and whether media commentators should be taken seriously-even if from ones own political party.
R.Emmett Tyrrell Jr. at The American Spectator  AT THIS LINK
"Au Revoir, Mr. President"

Best quote: "Next week President Obama goes into retirement. I hope he will consider Hawaii"

Not quite a presidential prediction but an interesting one 

Tom Ridge: Romney Will Win Pennsylvania


"Dick Morris: Romney Will Win In A "Landslide"

The wonderful Dick Morris in full flight

DICK MORRIS: In Florida, the [New YorkTimes says Obama is going to win by 1. But their sample has 7 points more Democrats than Republicans.

Pollster John McLaughlin and I went through the actual results of the last four elections and on average, the Republicans had 1% more than the Democrats. So that poll is off by a factor of 8. So instead of Obama winning by 1, Romney would win Florida by 7.

In Ohio, Obama is shown winning by 5 in the Times poll. But they had 8 points more Democrats than Republicans and historically, there are only two points more Ds than Rs. So that's 6 points off. So instead of Romney losing by 5, he wins Ohio by 1.

And in Virginia, they have Obama winning by 2. But they have 8 points more Democrats than Republicans and historically there's one points more Republican than Democrat. That's off by a factor of 9, Romney wins Virginia by 7.
Not a 100% election winning prediction but halfway there from Joann Weiner at the Washington Post

"Why Romney will win the popular vote"

Best equivocation comment: 

"If the economy’s all that matters, then Romney’s set to win the popular vote. But, that’s not all that matters. For Gov. Romney to become President Romney he must reach 270 electoral votes. And, that’s no sure thing."
Mary Cate Cary at US News & World report has no such wishy washy prediction qualms

"Why Mitt Romney Will Win"

Best quote: "If you want to know who is winning an election, look at who is winning independents. Obama has lost them.
Romney has won the mainstream. "
Here the very positive Rich Galen at Town Hall AT THIS LINK

"Romney Will Win"

Best quote: "The Romney campaign has prepared for the end game and over the next five days will show that their ground game strategy and tactics were better than the Obama campaign's.
The tide of history is running against Barack Obama and, as the English King Canute said in about 1016 when he proved even with all his power he could not hold back the tide:"
Michael Hudome at The daily Caller AT THIS LINK very confidently predicts an early night for everyone:

"Romney will win Pennsylvania"

Really good quote: 

"Despite all the hype, it’s going to be a short election night. The Keystone State is the key reason. Pennsylvania will go for Governor Mitt Romney.

Michael Barone Senior political analyst (sic) does it wishy washy style but nevertheless goes for a Romney win at The Washington Examiner AT THIS LINK

"Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily"

Best prediction:-Romney will win all these states

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.
Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.
Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.
Iowa (6)
Here's Jay Cost at The Weekly Standard AT THIS LINK with this straightforward post title with the get out of jail word "likely" but ends with a more adventurous

 "I am more interested in connecting the polls to history and the long-run structure of American politics, and when I do that I see a Romney victory. "

Morning Jay: Why Romney Is Likely to Win

Followed by this quote:

 "I think Mitt Romney is likely to win next Tuesday.
For two reasons:

 (1) Romney leads among voters on trust to get the economy going again.

 (2) Romney leads among independents."

Here's the emphatic Dan McLaughlin at REDSTATE 

"Why I Think Obama Is Toast"

and the money quote, Including actual toast

The waterfront of analyzing all the factors that go into my conclusion here is too large to cover in one post, but the signs of Obama’s defeat are too clear now to ignore"


It is almost unfair of course to include Karl Rove in this compendium as, of course, what was he expected to say. However for the record here is the whiteboard kings prediction.From THIS LINK

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.
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