Update-more or less exactly as I predicted
I'd expect the next polls from Utah to show Trump either far behind Clinton or even in third place behind Kristol's puppet McMullin.
This would hardly be surprising considering the huge defeat Trump had in Utah in the primary, the butthurt abandoning of Trump by Senator Lee and Romney's unhelpfulness to say the least.
How Kristol can be so stupid (and he has done incredibly stupid things throughout the primaries when all his "Trump has reached his ceiling at 20% 25% etc etc" idiocies were repeated over and over.
The media would no doubt gloat about 'Trump's collapse in a rock solid red state" but that would be just stupid and take no account of the above considerations.
Lets consider what might happen if Kristol's dumb dream of handing the presidency to Clinton by Trump losing Utah came to pass. Nate Silver ran a column where he considered that if Gary Johnson carried New Mexico, where he is polling like McMullin, then it might happen that neither Trump nor Clinton could get to 270 electoral College votes and the election would be thrown into the House of Representative.
Lets see what happens if Clinton carries New Mexico but McMullin carries Utah while Trump carries New Hampshire
Or Trump carries Colorado but not New Hampshire
In all three examples no candidate has 270 Electoral College votes so the top three candidates are put before the House where each state has one vote based on the majority vote of the states congressional delegations. The Republicans control the majority of such delegations "A tie is is a win" or even a loss is a win in two of the the above cases.
Very little would give me, and i am sure millions of Trump supporters more satisfaction than to see Kristol's scheming bite the dust in the above fashion. It's clear this election is unlike any other so there is absolutely no reason why any of the above scenarios could not play out to Trump's favor.
Of course the best result of all would be if the Utah Congressional delegation handed the state to Trump!