Monday, October 3, 2016

Vote For Gary Johnson! (In New Mexico) A Trump Win Ugly Keeps Hillary From White House?

FiveThirtyEight's supposed guru Nate "Trump has a 2% chance for the nomination" sees the possibility of Gary Johnson winning New Mexico;

"There was one poll that caught our eye, though, and it was from New Mexico. The survey, from Research & Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal, showed a competitive three-way matchup, with Clinton at 35 percent, Trump at 31 percent, and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson at 24 percent. Because New Mexico hasn’t been polled much, the survey had a fair amount of influence on our forecast, reducing Clinton’s chances of winning New Mexico to 82 percent from 85 percent in the polls-only model.

Most of the time, Trump would be the beneficiary of a Clinton loss in New Mexico. But the model also assigns Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s presidential nominee, an outside chance — 2 or 3 percent — of winning the state. That could lead to an Electoral College deadlock that looks like this:

In this map, via, Clinton has 267 electoral votes, Trump has 266, and Johnson has New Mexico’s five. With no candidate possessing an Electoral College majority, the election would go to the House of Representatives, with Clinton, Trump and Johnson all eligible to receive votes.
Each candidate might be able to make a claim to legitimacy, of sorts. Trump might argue that the outcome showed that voters had profoundly rejected the status quo — and what could be a bigger rejection of the status quo than a President Trump? But more importantly, he’d have a sympathetic audience, since Republicans are likely to control the majority of congressional delegations. "
The question thus arises for Trump voters in New Mexico, vote for Trump and hope
Johnson takes enough support from Clinton to give the state to Trump or vote for Johnson and let him win while Trump finishes third?
The odds against Trump winning the state outright or very poor. It was won comfortably by Obama twice and Hillary has led in every poll. No commentator has considered it winnable for Trump and he has not campaigned there. In my opinion, whatever it takes to defeat Hillary and if that means voting for Johnson in the one state he has a chance and taking possibly crucial votes from Hillary then win ugly but win.
New Mexico could be crucial to the outcome not only in Silver's permutation but Trump could even lose Florida and still get the same result by winning Pennsylvania/Colorado, where he has a realistic chance, if Johnson takes the state;

No comments :

Post a Comment