Monday, October 17, 2016

Tracking Poll Update 10/18 Trump Continues To Rise In USC/LATimes To Plus 1.1 PPD + 1.2

Update 10/18 ; UPI/C which leans Clinton has finally updated and so has Rasmussen (which moved back to Clinton and now moving back to Trump) confirms overall trend to Trump across all four polls.

There is still a post "Trump Tapes" component as two of these polls include a 7 day average. Once that clears a fuller picture will emerge.

It is clear that one of the greatest benefits of Wikileaks coming when they did is that if forced the hand of the anti-Trump forces in the media and DNC to push their "Trump Tapes" ploy.

If, as is highly probable those forces had been able to launch the 'Trump Tapes" in the last week of the campaign with the ensuing media hysteria Trump would have had no time to recover from the poll dip that did follow their release as clearly has happened as set out below.

However, as can be seen by the aggregate final figure (Clinton decline from +4 to +1.1) the trend to Trump is obvious. If this continues, with the normal ups and down, I would expect by election day he will be leading in all four-then we shall see who is correct, me or Nate Silver/the MSM polls (unless they all agree with the trackers by then which his possible as they tend to 'herd" together a week out).

Trump continues his recovery in all the tracking polls recorded and especially in the USC/LA Times and PPD polls. In PPD Trump at 1.2 (+0.6 since yesterday) has gone up 4.4 points since 10/09

USC/LATimes 10/17 Trump +1.6 (Trump 44.9 Clinton 43.3)
Clinton has declined by 1.1 and Trump risen by 0.9 since 10/11

Interestingly Trump's strongest rise has come from completely disparate groups. High School or less

Highest Incomes

Ethnicity other than White/Hispanic/Black (which may reflect his recent outreach to the Hindu community

Trump led every day from 9/11 to 10/10 when the media hysteria of Trump Gate temporarily put Clinton in a tiny lead of 0.4 and 0.1 before the effects of the media onslaught wore off. As the graph shows Trump is clearly ascending again

However what is available shows a striking picture of Trump's recovery and upward trajectory in the aggregate which is the best guide we have. Clinton reached her post Trump Gate height on 10/11 and has declined sharply subsequently by 5.8 points

I advise I only trust the tracking polls in the aggregate as they are not subject to the obvious gross bias that the MSM obviously has.

This week’s polls’ internals... WaPo D+8 Fox D+9 NBC D+12 Reuters D+15 NBC/WSJ Poll D+18.9 ...

@surveyusa Texas 10/12 Trump +4 Reuters Texas 16/10 Trump +25

One Off MSM polls WASHPOST/ABC Clinton +4 NBC/WSJ Clinton +11 Tracking polls Rasmussen Trump +2 USC/LATimes Trump +1 Both can't be right

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