Friday, October 14, 2016

Key State Aggregate Polls Moving To Trump Where It Counts; In The Electoral College. USC Sharp Shift Too

UPDATE 10/27; Note the movement to Trump in these key states highlighted in red since this was published 10/14.
Also big jump in USC/LATimes poll for Trump up 1.5 points in three days to lead of 1.1 points after Clinton had taken the lead. Both the state polls and the near tie in the honest Trackers IBD (Clinton+2) PPD (Clinton +0.4) and Rasmussen (Clinton +1) and USC's result may be showing Trump doing a "Reagan Vs Carter" in the last two weeks

USC/LATimes Trump 45.3 Clinton 44.2

Sharpest increase in poll support comes from spike in support from middle income America

RCP aggregate poll movements to Trump from 10/14 to 10/24

Florida +2 Ohio +0.5 Nevada +1.2 Colorado +1.0
Pennsylvania +1.8 (-6.2 to -4.4)

First the obvious qualification. For Trump to get the "one or two states to win he has to have won Florida/North Carolina/Ohio. Lose any of them, especially Florida and Republicans can turn off their televisions around 
10 p.m. on November 8th. 

At this point he is behind in the aggregate in two of the three but he is still very much competitive (within the margin of error MOE) in all Florida -3.6 (10/26 -1.6)
North Carolina -2.5 (10/26 -2)
Now back in the aggregate lead in Ohio +0.7 (10/26 +1.1)

In my opinion, Virginia -7.2 is gone but the Trump team announced a multi-million dollar TV spend and he held a rally there which they obviously wouldn't do if they didn't think there was a reasonable chance. On the other hand those like Hot Air's Allapundit who think *Georgia may go to Clinton" are dreamers (barring some unexpected massive sea change).

Lets look at the best case Electoral College scenario, at this point, for Trump;

Trump needs 269 Electoral College votes, not 270 as a tie is as good as a win. Presuming he carries FLA/NC/OH and the "Kerry states" of 2012, plus Iowa (currently Trump +3.7) and Maine's Congressional District 2 where he leads by +7.5 (10/27 +4.2) he is 9 votes short.

Winning Nevada would get him to 266, still 3 votes short. Winning Colorado would get him to 269 and the presidency. Alternatively Nevada plus New Hampshire would be 270. How is he polling in those three states? Nevada promising but the other two, not so good but Pennsylvania a surprise mover.

Bearing in mind the aggregate of some of these states polls reflect some of Trump's worst weeks or are well out of date. He is within or well outside of the margin of error (MOE) but it would be foolishly optimistic to say they are certainties.

Nevada -4.2 (10/27 -2.0) but he hasn't led in any poll since 9/20
Colorado -7.2 (10/27 -6.2) Trump hasn't led in any poll since 9/23
New Hampshire -4.7 (-7.0)  But he has not led in any poll of the state and as of 27/10 aggregate has moved against him.The latest poll from Monmouth puts him at only-4, a five point shift in their poll in four weeks, so the state bears watching especially as Johnson has 9% and may collapse.

Some consider Pennsylvania -6.2 (10/27 -4.4) or Wisconsin -7.0 (10/27 -6.7) within reach but there are no polling indicators which would support Wisconsin but Pennsylvania is now in margin of error territory. A shock win in either (or Virginia) would elect Trump.

Again at this point it is down to Nevada/Colorado/New Hampshire with Nevada/New Hampshire seeming the best chance. If he did win Colorado it would be unique that winning 1 Electoral Vote from Maine's CD2 would give him the presidency.

What would not be unique would Gary Johnson and Stein, currently at 12.7% in the latest New Hampshire aggregates and  6.3% in Nevada, costing the Dem's the presidency, it would be a repeat of Nader's spoiler role in 2000.