Thursday, October 20, 2016

10/20 Yuuuge Poll Day For Trump

A striking turnaround for Donald Trump in the tracking polls and very interesting developments in the "one off" polls

In four days Clinton has gone from being +2 to being -3, a fall of five points as Trump leads in the Rasmussen poll by +3

In the PPD tracker Clinton fell from 1.7 to a Trump lead of +1.6 a 3.3 turnaround

And in the USC/LATimes poll Trump increased from 0.2 to 0.6

An aggregate figure can't be done because, as usual UPI/C is holding back its results but on current polling I would expect Trump to be back in the lead in the aggregate.

If we look at ten days ago, Clinton's height in the tracking polls on 10/11, she has declined sharply in all four.
USC/LATimes -3.6 Rasmussen -6.7 PPD -4.6 UPI/C -1.6 for an aggregate drop of -4.1

In the one off polls  which appear to lag the tracking polls, plus Rasmussen the polls taken ending 10/18-19 Clinton's lead, in the AGGREGATE of the four latest polls is just +1.7 as opposed to the RCP headline lead of +6.0 which includes polls stretching back to data from 10/10 "Trump Tape" hysteria.

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