Monday, October 24, 2016

10/24 Five Honest Tracking Polls Aggregate Update; Clinton +0.3

UPI/C has finally updated it's polling after nothing since 10/15. The poll leans Clinton and today's result of Clinton +3.0 a drop of 3.5 points for her since their last poll report.

The last two days polls have been sub-optimal for Trump as he declined in PPD from +1.4 to +0.6, a sharp drop in USC/LATimes from +0.3 to minus 1.3 and a two point drop in IBD to a tie.

USC has shown these sharp fluctuations before and the next few polls across these five trackers will be instructive. 

IBD is a concern as it is rated the most accurate and whilst Rasmussen has held up at Trump +2 the general trend over the last few days has been negative. That said the aggregate is still basically a tie with Clinton at a tiny 
+0.3 point lead.

Over time Clinton has declined in the aggregate of the four original polls excluding IBD from her high on 10/11 of +3.7 to +0.4 today

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