Friday, May 1, 2015

Redux:"Can Cruz Capture Palin’s Lightning In A Bottle Once Again?"

From my original article at Bob Belvedere's outstanding "The Camp Of The Saints" Site    LINK

 Can Cruz Capture Palin’s Lightning In A Bottle Once Again?

01 MAY 2015 @ 19:31
On current polling Senator Cruz sits exactly in the middle of the pack in single figures at at 7% ten points behind the GOP establishment’s choice Jeb Bush. For a declared candidate who has received substantial media coverage this could be considered a poor result, especially as a number of other candidates, Carson, Huckabee, Fiorina and possibly Trump are expected to declare shortly taking the spotlight further off him.
However, Cruz has been in this, in fact more than a much worse situation, rather he has been in a near impossible situation that seemingly only a miracle could change. Fortunately for him that miracle came and, quite possibly could come again.
In Cruz’s apparently quixotic run for senator from Texas against Lt.Governor Dewhurst (an office considered more powerful than the actual governorship) the polls showed this result which could have induced lesser mortals to shut up shop; PPP Polling January 2011; Dewhurst 23% Cruz 3% (Dewhurst +20).
Then Governor Sarah Palin endorsed Cruz on May 21st; The first Post Palin endorsement poll from Democrat Pollster PPP Polling (D)  on May 24th found Dewhurst 46%  Cruz 29%  (Dewhurst +17) PPP, classically wrong, also found this result:
Even though Rick Perry’s candidate is likely to defeat Sarah Palin’s, her endorsement polls much more positively. 36% of voters say they’re more inclined to back a Palin supported candidate to 21% who consider it a negative. 
And then on primary day:
Dewhurst won early vote by 18 pts but only winning election day by about 6 pts so far…not sure that means anything for runoff or not
PPP (D) Polling did a Roper/Truman and stopped polling for a time when Dewhurst was so far in front and Cruz at 3%. The answer to their questions as to being “not sure” was the dramatic change that happened when Palin got involved. But being a Dem pollster that wouldn’t have occurred to them-such are the rewards of innate prejudice overcoming any professionalism PPP has.
And, much to PPP’s chagrin (as well as being 10 points off in their polling) in the May 29th first round Cruz kept Dewhurst below the 50% point and created a runoff election between them.
RepublicanDavid Dewhurst624,17044.6
RepublicanTed Cruz479,07934.2
Clearly this last minute Tweet by Palin to Texans (“Dear Texans, please remember to vote today for Ted Cruz for U.S. Senate!”), and her previous robocall, made a major contribution to Cruz’s success in getting into the run-off and the end result was a landslide for Cruz on July 31st:
Republican Ted Cruz: 631,316, 56.8%
Republican David Dewhurst: 480,165, 43.2%
Followed by an even bigger 16 point landslide against the Democratic candidate in November:
Nov 6 2012 
Ted Cruz: 4,440,137, 56.5%
Paul Sadler: 3,194,927, 40.6%
Taking a look at what Palin’s endorsement did, which facts are buried in the media meme of Palin not having any influence, how they can they keep that up, in the light of her endless successes, and despite her having 21 of her 23 endorsed candidates win in the 2014 midterms, is a mystery.
ABC News on May 10, 2012:
Ted Cruz, U.S. Senate candidate from Texas,
reports bounce from Sarah Palin’s endorsement
The Hill on May 30,2012:
ABC reports that hours after Palin endorsed Cruz, the staff at Cruz’s headquarters in Austin reported a swift and positive reaction. Last night Cruz forced the establishment candidate into a runoff.
“In every other state, Sarah Palin’s endorsement has been a game-changer,” Cruz told Texas on the Potomac.
…when the unheard-of Tea Party candidate for governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, was slandered by the old-school conservative rank and file, Mitt Romney came to her aid. But she didn’t move in the polls. Sarah Palin came down and campaigned and Haley won in a landslide.
Recently, Palin backed little-known state Sen. Deb Fischer, who beat the well-known, well-funded rival to become the nominee for the U.S. Senate in Nebraska. And in Indiana she endorsed Richard Mourdock, who unseated the popular incumbent, Sen. Dick Lugar (R).
Only the most biased leftist could discount the blatantly obvious fact that Palin’s endorsement made Cruz a senator, just like it helped or made both Nebraska Senators Deb Fischer and Ben Sasse and Iowa’s Joni Ernst amongst others. To make it absolutely clear Cruz introduced Palin at CPAC by stating “I wouldn’t be standing here if it were not for Governor Palin.”
The big question is, if Palin herself chooses not to run can she work the same magic for Cruz if she endorses him for president? Cruz is currently polling 6th at 7% in a tightly bunched field, other conservatives of various stripes have a combined total of 18%.
It would be hard to believe that if Governor Palin made a strong statement of support for Cruz that a substantial percentage of the others support would not , immediately, switch to Cruz. If he picked up 10 points he would be in a tie with GOP establishment current leader Jeb Bush and, more importantly than any day to day poll, he would have momentum and a solid base of support and funding which would see him well placed in Iowa and South Carolina to start with and of course Texas.
A Palin endorsement of Cruz for president has every chance of getting him into the winning position exactly as it has for so many others. As Bernie Quigley put it:
Palin is one of the most important and influential figures in conservative politics today, and she has been from the beginning. She is virtually rebuilding conservatism in America. One of these days the babbling conservative blogosphere is bound to catch on. Or are their plaintive cries and whispers, echoing through the night like those of abandoned coyote pups, the last complaints we are likely to hear from the Eastern conservative establishment?
Mr. Sheppard is the proprietor of the blogs Point Of View and Palin4President 2016.  He also writes occasionally for American Thinker and is a man of refined taste.  Follow him on Twitter: @MJosephSheppard.

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