Saturday, February 6, 2016

Chaos Theory; Bloomberg, Sanders And Trump 3rd Parties?

UPDATE. (Bloomberg run inevitable)
"Bloomberg says he is eyeing 2016 run"


If anyone thinks the title of this article is to fanciful to be taken seriously, such people would also have said, two years ago, that Donald Trump being Republican front runner and 74 year socialist Senator from Vermont having a 30 point lead on Hillary Clinton in the upcoming New Hampshire primary would be preposterous.

Yet, here we are.

Scott McKay at 'The American Spectator' "It's Happening Just  Like I Told You" adds another layer to this wild and wonderful election. He sees an indicted Hillary Clinton leaving the race and not Sanders nor Biden becoming the nominee but Michael Bloomberg. Whether you agree with that scenario or not two things are clear. 

The scenario regarding Hillary is perfectly feasible if not imminent. He sets out why Bloomberg could spend unlimited money, and would be acceptable to the party stalwarts, because they see him as a harmless centrist unlike Sanders. And anyway, they would expect to lose and he would be expendable and allow for some new blood to contest in 2020 free from the Clinton's grip.

On the other hand Douglas Schoen writing in The Wall Street Journal "Why Mike Bloomberg Can Win" sees Hillary surviving and Bloomberg entering the fray as a self-financing third party candidate taking on the Republican wilder shores of Trump or Cruz and the tired old Democratic machine. 

This has been trial ballooned for years (going back to 2010) and with Bloomberg not getting any younger this may be his last best shot. There is a whole history of Bloomberg trial balloons including my thoughts on, what seems perfectly logical, a Bloomberg/Bush ticket.

So on the left the possibilities are;

1.Hillary quits and Bloomberg buys the Democratic nomination with an acquiescent old guard via the "Super delegates."

2. Hillary somehow holds on (they will have to pries her fingers from the nomination) and Bloomberg advises that such a scenario is morally repugnant (which it would be of course) and goes third party. In the name of "national unity" he chooses a Republican and who would be more of such a symbol than Jeb Bush, as his running mate?

3. The "progressive" youth who have invested so much with Bernie Sanders, are enraged and loudly proclaim they will not support Hillary who is so badly scandal tainted, and Sanders is forced by acclamation to run as a "Progressive." If Elizabeth Warren joined the crusade the left would be in ecstasy.

So much for the left. What could play out on the right? Clearly in this confused and confusing time nothing is too far fetched, in fact I struggle to find any scenario which could not easily eventuate.

But lets have a go as things stand now.

1. The populist insurgency of Donald Trump wins state after state and even with their utmost labors the Republican Establishment can't stop him getting the nomination.

2. The Republican Establishment's labors bear fruit and Trump is denied the nomination at the convention (or via Iowa type shenanigans earlier on) and it goes to one of (or in tandem) Bush/Kasich/Rubio. Trump's masses of supporters are enraged and walkout and Trump runs as an Independent with Sarah Palin as his running mate.

3. Senator Cruz wins the nomination and the party splits, not formally, but Establishment voices make it known they won't work for his ticket. They could even put up a spoiler third party ticket (Romney?) like the Democratic Establishment did
in 1896 against the radical William Jennings Bryan.

At this point if Sanders is the Democratic nominee a Bloomberg third party run is a near certainty.

So in summary, in November we could well see Third Party runs by Trump, Bloomberg and Sanders (and even Romney),Hillary, Sanders or Bloomberg as the Democratic nominee, Cruz or Trump or an Establishment choice as the Republican nominee.

Again, for anyone to consider any of these scenario's as "outlandish" I refer them back to the opening paragraph. 

Now, as to who would have 269/270 Electoral College votes that is an impenetrable mystery at this point, the more likely result would be that the House would have to choose the president and the Senate the vice-president. If that happened the ensuing chaos would make the election period seem like a summer picnic.