The first polls after Donald Trump's triumph in New Hampshire are bad news for the establishment/media and for his campaign rivals.
Trump now starting to do well among Latino's;
"A new poll confirms it. In the national survey, which was conducted by Beck Research on behalf of the American Federation for Children, 38 percent of Latinos favor Trump. Ted Cruz got 15 percent. Jeb Bush pulled in 14 percent. And Marco Rubio, the guy who’s supposed to be the one who could unite the party and win? Just 8 percent."
Si Se Puede!
In new poll on Latino voters finds Donald Trump has more support from Republican Latino voters than Cuban-Americans Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio combined."
Astounding Massachusetts poll;
Trump Holds Massive 31 Point Lead Over Rubio in Massachusetts – 43-12%
Massachusetts
Donald Trump has a commanding lead in Massachusetts, pulling in more support than the next 4 candidates combined. He currently leads Marco Rubio by 31 points – 43-12% – about 18 days away from the election.
If you’re Donald Trump, it’s hard to get better news out of The Bay State, considering there are 39 proportionally allocated delegates up for grabs. The 5% threshold looks like it will be achievable by everyone except perhaps Ben Carson (Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie suspended their campaigns during the poll), meaning most candidates still standing for Super Tuesday will walk away with at least a couple delegates.
Super Tuesday looks like the day that could seal the nomination for Trump, especially if Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, and Bush are all still in the race. Several states splitting votes for second place in what increasingly looks like a “Trump vs Not-Trump” primary race could put everyone else in VP mode.
It should be interesting to see if anybody drops out after the South Carolina primary next week. A poor showing from Ben Carson or John Kasich could mean curtains for them. With the way things are playing out, it does seem like we will realistically know who the Republican candidate will be on March 16th. Either Trump will build an overwhelming delegate lead, or one of the the “Not-Trump” candidates will have consolidated the anti-Trump vote.
Results:
Donald Trump – 43%
Marco Rubio – 12%
Ted Cruz – 10%
John Kasich – 9%
Jeb Bush – 8%
Ben Carson – 6%
Chris Christie – 3%
Carly Fiorina – 2%
Other – 0%
Undecided – 7%
Marco Rubio – 12%
Ted Cruz – 10%
John Kasich – 9%
Jeb Bush – 8%
Ben Carson – 6%
Chris Christie – 3%
Carly Fiorina – 2%
Other – 0%
Undecided – 7%
Poll Report: http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb9-Feb11RepublicanPrimaryPoll-Massachusetts.pdf
In the vital state of South Carolina
First SCarolina poll and result exactly same as Jan 17th @realDonaldTrump massive 16 point lead.
From South Carolina House Caucus Poll LINK
The South Carolina House Republican Caucus consists of all the Republican members of the State House of Representatives. Heading into the 2015-2016 session, the GOP holds 78 of the 124 House seats.
Bill Kristol-as usual got it completely wrong with his top secret "insider poll"
In Tennessee another new poll with Trump miles ahead by 16 points
"A new poll from Middle Tennessee State University shows Donald Trump holding a strong lead over second place in Tennessee, which will be one of the states voting in the important March 1 “SEC Primary.”
Trump was in first place with 33 percent, followed by Cruz in a distant second place with 17 percent, according to the poll:
When asked to name the one person they would most like to win the 2016 presidential election, 33 percent of self-described Republican voters named Trump. Cruz came in second, chosen by a significantly smaller 17 percent of Republicans.But 28 percent of GOP voters said they did not know who they would like to see win.Ben Carson, who led the presidential field among Tennessee voters in the October 2015 MTSU Poll, drew just 7 percent of Republican voters in the latest sample. The remaining Republican candidates also registered in the single digits at best.
The poll was conducted of 600 registered voters, not likely primary voters, between January 15 and January 20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percent."
Nationwide "Morning Consult" finds a massive 27 point lead for "The Donald"
Poll: Wins Push Trump, Sanders to New Heights
After winning New Hampshire’s presidential primaries by wide margins, New York real estate magnate Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders are soaring to new heights among their respective party’s voters, a new Morning Consult poll finds, signaling momentum as voters in new states prepare to weigh in.
Trump, who doubled his nearest rival in Tuesday’s vote, attracts 44 percent of the vote among self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, the highest level of support he has achieved in a Morning Consult survey.
See full toplines here, and full crosstabs here.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who won the Iowa caucuses and finished third in New Hampshire, clocks in second with 17 percent of the vote, followed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, both at 10 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush takes 8 percent, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich wins 4 percent.
| February 10-11, 2016 | February 3-7, 2016 | February 2-3, 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 44% | 38% | 38% |
| Ted Cruz | 17% | 17% | 14% |
| Ben Carson | 10% | 9% | 9% |
| Marco Rubio | 10% | 15% | 12% |
| Jeb Bush | 8% | 6% | 5% |
| John Kasich | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| Someone Else | 1% | 6% | 12% |
| Don't Know/No Opinion | 6% | 8% | 8%
"Those are registered, not likely, voters, but if you’re looking for evidence that Trump’s big win in New Hampshire is building momentum for him in other states, here’s some. The fact that he’s blasted through 40 percent, even temporarily, also seems significant in that the mid- to high 30s have been his ceiling in most national polls until now. In fact, not only is 44 percent his best take ever in a national poll, it’s only the third time he’s cracked the 40-point ceiling. He reached 41 percent a few weeks ago in a CNN survey and 41 again in a Monmouth survey in early December. (Both also polls of registered voters, it should be noted.) The idea that the field will winnow and the anti-Trump faction will carry someone else to victory continues to seem plausible-ish to lots of righty commentators, but I wonder how many Republicans out there who like Trump and know him much better than the other candidates by dint of his celebrity are newly open to him as nominee now that he’s scored a major win (and may be on the brink of another). One of the key “arguments” against Trump for some undecideds, I think, is “c’mon, we’re not gonna nominate Trump.” The weaker that argument seems, the more undecideds it may shake loose."
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