Thursday, February 18, 2016

Ludicrous NBC/Wall St Journal "Cruz Leads Trump" Poll Actually Aids Trump

The ludicrous NBC/Wall St Journal "poll" that purports to show Cruz has passed Donald Trump nationally actually has a redeeming feature.

But before we get to that here is the poll amongst other recent polls including Morning Consult and Fox polls which were taken even later than NBC's

And some comments; 

"Not only NBC/WSJ is a disgusting poll but the way Chuck Todd announced it today was even worse. He called it a game changer"
CNBC interrupted their programming with 'Breaking News' of this poll."

The "justification" for the NBC poll is that it was the only on taken 100% after the last debate. But the Morning Consult poll and the just released Ipsos/Reuters polls were also taken post debate;

New Reuters poll (non-tracking)

"Donald Trump has taken a more than 20-point lead over U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas in the Republican race for the presidential nomination, bolstering his position ahead of the party's primary in South Carolina on Saturday, according to a national Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Among Republicans, Trump, a billionaire businessman, drew 40 percent support in the poll conducted from Saturday to Wednesday, compared with 17 percent for Cruz, 11 percent for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, 10 percent for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and 8 percent for former Florida Governor Jeb Bush."

Further, 9 polls for South Carolina taken post debate have Trump at an average of 34.7% to Cruz 17.4%.

The NBC poll is obviously not only an outlier but blatantly so whose set-up has been well described;

And the last sentence is the debt intelligent observers owe to this flawed poll, if flawed is the correct terminology for a creation being set out by a Dem pollster, exactly as desired.

"Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart and his firm Hart Research Associates, says Trump's drop could signal being "right on top of a shift in the campaign."

Trump's polling can not be viewed only by the responses of Republicans and even less so by a poll weighted to "very conservative Republicans." Trump, uniquely amongst the Republican candidates, has appeal to Independents, and Democratic supporters. If you strip them out then of course there will be a distorted result.

Everyone, except the most partisan supporters of Trump's opponents and the die hard intransigents in the media gets this. It is too much to expect that such an embarrassment to polling is so vivid in its bias that even that motley bunch can see reality but at the end of the day it doesn't matter.

This poll can be added to all the other failed tactics of an increasingly shrill and defeated Establishment as proof to the people who want change who the opponents of that change are, and who is the person who will deliver the balm to their frustrations and to their country.


My Blog "M.Joseph Sheppard's A Point Of View"

is a conservative orientated site which, along with my Palin specific site, has had over 1,250,000 views. It is a growing force for Trump/Palin and general news analysis and original articles. I have been writing since 2008 and have built up a substantial following including over 1,600 (genuine) Twitter followers who readily interact.
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The media, and especially the blogosphere, is dominated by "progressive" leftist sites and there is a pressing need for strong, rational and in-depth conservative writing to counter this. 

With perhaps the most important election in decades coming up I would like to add my voice to this need. But it needs to have a professional presentation to effectively counter the sites backed by big corporates and donors like Soros.

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M.Joseph Sheppard