Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Nate Silver's Reputation Utterly Destroyed By Trump In "6th Stages Of Trump's Doom"

It is done! Donald Trump is the nominee and Nate Silver is utterly exploded. he, should like Dana Milbank, eat his own words frankly, but the little jerk is even more arrogant and elitist.
Such ends Silver's run from the hate sludge of Daily Kos.

"But he’s almost certainly doomed, sooner or later."

Hillaryis44 summed it up concisely showing Silver is all over the place as Trump wins handily in New Hampshire.
Speaking of liars and cowards, Nate Silver. Silver is the “numbers guru” who used to write for the DailyKooks website and trash us. Silver, in his subsequent books and writings never disclosed he got campaign data from Obama in 2008. Silver lied his way to a top column at the New York Times and now has his own website. For months Silver gave Trump single digit (2%) chances to get the nomination. Unlike our on target analysis, Silver did not think Trump would win Iowa, let alone the nomination. Now, Nate Silver is backtracking.

Nate Silver, like many pollsters are running away from their lies now that Iowa votes in a few days. Silver and his lying friends are at this late hour, after their lies and stupid “analysis” have failed, busy rewriting. Today, Nate Silver tweeted a picture with the caption: “Just hanging out by the White House.” The picture is of Trump Tower.


Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom
Nate Silver  LINK

"Stage 1: Free-for-all (August 2015)

When it happens: This is the stage we’re in now; it will continue through the next couple of months.
Potential threat to Trump: Increased attention to other GOP candidates

Stage 2: Heightened scrutiny

When it happens: Mid-November or thereabouts, as voters up their level of attention to the campaign
Potential threat to Trump: Polling support doesn’t translate to likely, more-informed voters.

Stage 3: Iowa and New Hampshire

When it happens: Feb. 1 and Feb. 9, based on the provisional calendar.
Potential threat to Trump: Middling performance in one or both states, either in an absolute sense or relative to polls.
given his tendency to trumpet every favorable poll, he could also set himself up for a fall. A Trump who finishes in third place with 14 percent of the vote in Iowa won’t have much to brag about."

Trump's performance in Iowa was hardly middling, the second highest vote ever received in the caucus and more than Huckabee received in winning and who knows he might have won if not for the Cruz team's shenanigans.It is hardly to be believed Silver conceived a far right conservative winning Iowa against Trump instead of some Establishment pick.

As for "finishing third in Iowa with 14% of the vote" again, utter fail.
And, just to show more of this failure here's the FiveThirtyEight Team in (befuddled further  Trump fail dialogue) doubling down on their October "predictions" Silver actually had the nerve to revisit his original article in December without commenting on Trump not being "doomed"

natesilver: Well, I put his chances at 2 percent in that “stages of doom” article, which lays out a procedure for how you’d calculate them. If he has cleared Stage 1, his chances would double, to 4 percent."
And of course New Hampshire-a Trump landslide. As you can see Silver at half way through his own 6 stages of doom is doomed.

Next up, stage four;

"Stage 4: Winnowing

When it happens: mid-February through mid-March
Potential threat to Trump: Other candidates drop out, and remaining ones surpass Trump."
Well we have passed South Carolina and Nevada-both landslides and from 17 candidates there are now three candidates left-plenty of "winnowing." Tuesday saw Trump win Marianas/Ohio/Illinois/Missouri and be at almost 700 delegates with more delegate rich winner take all states coming up for him

And of course, contrary to the media meme as the candidates dropped out Trump's vote has gone up-he seems to have garnered the sad Jeb's support to a degree as well.

Trump’s Lead Grows with Jeb Out of the Race

Trump has passed the 50% mark (53%) in a recent poll blowing away yet another media meme and 

Of course Silver and his hapless henchman Harry "Forecaster Enten" are not referring to the "6 stages of doom" script anymore and are treating Trump like the front runner he is (and has been since a few weeks from when he declared). How Silver has the chutzpah to carry on as a "pundit" is a mystery but, let's see if he lasts through all six stages. So far he is 0-4.

NEXT UP From Silver;

"Stage 5: Delegate accumulation

STAGE 6 "Trump is doomed by June

When it happens: mid-March through final primaries in June
Potential threats to Trump: Poor organization in caucus states, poor understanding of delegate rules, no support from superdelegates."

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