Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Palin's Endorsement Saved Trump's Campaign For New Hampshire

Endorsements are usually worth a bucket of warm saliva-Palin said as much when asked about her endorsement of Donald Trump "I don't think endorsements mean all that much she advised "reflecting on the Iowa result.

Hers was, however an exception. If she hadn't endorsed Trump he would have finished behind Rubio (who he finished only 1.3 points ahead of) and his campaign would be in serious jeopardy. I don't think she cost him a vote and if she gave him 1% (Rasmussen showed her endorsement was a net positive) that 1% may just have made the difference between going to NH in a good position and being written off by all the media with no momentum at all going into the crucial next  primary.

Commentator Michael JN Thompson wrote "It is clear that Palin saved Trump from losing by double digits in Iowa. He wouldn't have broke 20% that's for sure. In terms of the Governor’s impact, Trump won West Iowa, the region where the Governor has been the strongest and where Steve King’s congressional district in Iowa is located."

Just after Palin endorsed Trump Nicolle Wallace in The New York Times summed it up in one sentence "(Donald Trump)  Should he come out on top in Iowa, he has her to thank."
Trump as it turned out clung to second place by 1.3 points over Rubio so the reality is Trump has Palin to thank, not for the win but for saving his campaign but for his placing second and having only one less caucus vote than Cruz.

The Washington Post gives confirmation from an unimpeachable source-the Cruz camp;

"There were signs that the right was not united behind Cruz. Former vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin, a tea party and evangelical heroine, endorsed Trump at a splashy rally in Ames.The nightly surveys conducted by the Cruz campaign showed that Palin was a boon for Trump — 67 percent of Iowa Republicans had heard of her endorsement, and of them, 19 percent were more likely to support Trump. Only 13 percent were less likely to."

This net 6 point positive differential is exactly the same as Rasmussen found in an analysis prior to the vote;

"RASMUSSEN;"Net 6% of Iowa voters say Palin's endorsement helps Trump"
For Iowa Republicans conservative voters particular, a Palin endorsement is a plus" 59% of Republicans, hold a favorable view of Palin This includes 25% with a Very Favorable view"
Net 11% of conservative Iowa voters believe Palin's endorsement of Trump will help him."
And, putting the lie to the MSM meme that Palin 

is "unpopular"Rasmussen 

further found "Fifty-nine percent (59%) of 

Republican voters say former 

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin shares the values 

of most GOP voters 

throughout the nation.

The effect of Palin's 
endorsement was dramatically illustrated, by of all people the "Morning Joe" consultant who produced a graph of the effect of her endorsement on the betting markets. The rise from Trump being behind to a sharp increase ahead is dramatic-and these are people who put their own money on the line.

The effect of Palin's endorsement amongst Iowa women was immediate and dramatic;a 20% increase and amongst Tea Party Supporters a striking 33% increase

These two graphs from Real Clear Politics show the aggregate "Poll of Polls" results for the various candidates. On January 19th the date of Palin's speech in Iowa Trump and Cruz were within one point of each other. On January 26th when the full effect of the endorsement was felt Trump had a near six point lead.

That Trump lost by only three points can be considered remarkable. He hardly used Palin on the ground to supplement what turned out to be a weak get out the vote effort (she campaigned for him in Tulsa which in retrospect seem a wasted effort) and her election day efforts were mostly tied up with national media rather than the retail campaigning at which she is so adept. 

I reviewed what went wrong with Trump's campaign "Lessons learned" but not using Palin to full advantage can certainly be added to the list.

After Palin's endorsement there were over 10,000 articles across the media 99% of which were negative to hateful. Only, in a round about way, did Nicolle Wallace and Rasmussen get it right as did the Washington Post after the election.

Apart from the Post there is not a word of acknowledgement of Palins' contribution just continued denigration. That the Trump team might ignore the media onslaught and use Palin to the fullest extent possible in South Carolina (whose Governor, Nikki Haley owed her election to Palin and is now supporting Rubio) seems good advice.

That Trump is still a credible force in New Hampshire, rather than limping in after a distant third finish in Iowa, should reinforce the debt his team owes to Palin****and hopefully concentrates their minds about the vital role of good old fashion meet the folks retail campaigning.
If Trump soldiers on to the nomination the power of Palin with the great mass of ordinary folks across America, despite the most vicious efforts of a rabid media and Establishment (whose force Trump has now experienced) must surely commend her as running mate.


Hmm got 15,000 more votes than Iowa winner Rick Santorum and 500 more than Iowa winner Mike Huckabee


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