Friday, April 15, 2016

American Samoa/Guam/Virgin Islands 22 Delegates May Decide The GOP Nominee

Even if Donald Trump sweeps the entire Northeast with 100% of the bound delegates from New York Connecticut Rhode Island Maryland and Delaware his road to 1237 total bound delegates, and the nomination, is very tight indeed.

Trump is currently on 758 delegates. New York's 95, plus the other aforementioned states 118 combined delegates at full optimal result, would give him 971 thus he would need a further 266 from the remaining states.

It is doable-California has 172 available and New Jersey has 58, so if, Trump gets 100 from California
and all of NJ's 58 he needs 108 more. At that point the Trump friendly/proportional states are
Indiana 57 West Virginia 34 Oregon 28 Washington 44 New Mexico 12.

 Pennsylvania has 71 delegates but only 17 are  bound for winning the state, the other 54 are free agents (but research shows a majority will back the state winner.)

If Trump wins all of West Virginia, Pennsylvania's 17 for winning the state and 50% of the delegates from the rest that would be a total of 121 on the very last day of the primary-giving him a scant 13 above 1237 and that's if everything goes at least along the lines set out above.

Trump's cushion and guarantee at that point would be the proportion of Pennsylvania's unbound delegates supported him on the first ballot at the convention. 

If he wins the state handily, as all polls suggest, it is more than reasonable to expect that he would get at least half of the 54 delegates which would ensure his nomination, but again, even that is contingent on the delegate prediction above coming to fruition with only a small room for error.

This is where the overseas islands of Guam American Samoa and The Virgin Islands may be crucial. In what may be a promising omen for Trump The Northern Mariana's entire delegation bound themselves to him at their Caucus.

American Samoa has 9 uncommitted delegates but it is noticeable that one is Donald Trump's Campaign Chair for the Island.

The Virgin Islands also has a contingent of 9 but 2 are bound to Rubio (unless he releases them) 1 to Cruz and 1 to Trump which leaves 5 uncommitted.The original slate was all uncommitted but there were internal problems and, perhaps fortunately for Trump, he has at least one committed from the new slate;

Guam's delegation of 9 has one committed to Cruz and 8 unbound.

Thus, given the narrow path to 1237 it may well be that even 50% of these 22 delegates from such far flung corners of the world may determine not only the Republican nominee but, eventually, the next president. No doubt they will be kept busy answering the phone when they get to Cleveland.