Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Tuesday's FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver & Harry Enten Fail Yet Again

Nate Silver's sad and failing political site fivethirtyeight .com (even the comment section says he is living in denial" over Trump) continues on its erratic predictive path. It's record is, frankly terrible. 

Silver, who got his start at the far left hate site "Daily Kos" has been obsessed with Trump which led him to predict "Trump has a 2% chance of getting the nomination" and then a major article "Trump's 6 stages of Doom."

Silver's sidekick "Forecaster" Harry Enten previewed Tuesday's GOP primary ( making sure to ascribe the predictions to Silver so he doesn't have too much egg on his face, but included his own "predictions") and came up with these;



  • Delegates at stake28 (15 by congressional district, 13 statewide)
  • Nate Silver’s “deterministic” Trump projection23 delegates (this is, as Nate wrote, “the single most likely” number of delegates Trump will win in the state, in Nate’s view.)
"Still, given the obstacles between Trump and a clean sweep of Connecticut’s delegates, it’s still not clear where the state fits in Trump’s fight to collect 1,237 — whether Connecticut will get him closer to that goal or set him further off track."
Even with a 54% poll result Enten and Silver failed miserably Trump won all 28 delegates


  • Delegates at stake16
  • Nate’s deterministic Trump projection: 16 delegates
  • Allocation: winner-take-all
Since Trump had a 37 point poll lead even Silver couldn't get this one wrong.


  • Delegates at stake38 (24 by congressional district, 14 statewide)
  • Nate’s deterministic Trump projection: 29 delegates
  • Allocation: winner-take-all on the district and statewide level
 My own guess is that he’ll probably lose one or two districts — most likely the 2nd, 3rd, 5th or the 7th — but even in that scenario he’d exceed Nate’s deterministic delegate projection.
Trump was at 53% in the Maryland poll and for Silver/Enten-fail again Trump won all 38 delegates


  • Delegates at stake71 (54 by congressional district, 17 statewide)
  • Nate’s deterministic Trump projection: 17 delegates (statewide only)
Every poll had Trump by a landslide  here. No awards for getting the obvious right

Rhode Island

  • Delegates at stake19 (6 by congressional district, 13 statewide)
  • Nate’s deterministic Trump projection: 9 delegates
  • Allocation: proportional by congressional district and statewide
If you’re looking for some sort of excitement, there’s some question as to whether Cruz can reach the 10 percent threshold required to qualify for any delegates. But he probably will 
And...wrong again Trump won 11