Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Cruz's Delegate Haul Is A Mirage;He Defeated Trump In Only 4 Non-Caucus States

Statistics source; The Green Papers

That Senator Cruz, who will next Tuesday be mathematically eliminated from getting to the required 1237 delegates to win the nomination, can talk of "wins in a row" ( 8 or 9 or 10 or whatever the current nonsense is) is the height of conceit and legerdemain .

After New York votes Cruz will be over 2,000,000 votes behind Trump (current vote illustrated)

Before New York Cruz has 544 delegates to Trump 759. It can reasonably expected Trump will add 
75 + delegates and Cruz, perhaps none as current N.Y. polling has Trump between 54%-56% and Cruz below 20% (which figure is the minimum required to get delegates).

Cruz has defeated Trump in just four states (175 delegates) where primary elections were held Idaho/Oklahoma/Wisconsin and of course his own state of Texas-which gave him 104 of the 175 delegates. Cruz is tied delegate wise in Louisiana but lost by 10,000 votes-a ludicrous result.

180 of Cruz's delegates came from caucus states Alaska/Colorado/Iowa/Kansas/Kentucky/Maine/
North Dakota/Vermont/Virgin Islands/Wyoming/Guam

The balance of Cruz's delegates came from coming second or third to Trump. If Cruz's Texas win is set aside, it is clear that outside of his caucus wins he has no depth of voting strength compared to Trump's wins in head to head popular vote states across the nation.

For Cruz to base his claim to the nomination on stopping Trump from getting 1237 delegates whilst he is far behind delegate wise/vote wise, with clearly no legitimate claim based on popular support in any measure, is ludicrous.

At the convention if, via further ballot shifts to Cruz via the mechanism of his team having placed Cruz supporters as delegates in states Trump won, Cruz was "nominated" then it would be, most assuredly, the most Pyrrhic of victories. 

In that scenario the best Cruz could hope for would be Trump supporters staying home on election day-the worst, and most likely outcome would be a third party or write-in campaign and a landslide against Cruz.

As for Kasich

I was just analyzing this today. for He's won 1 state (Ohio) 2nd 5 times 3rd 8 times 4th or worse, 19 times..