Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Donald Trump Has In Reality 1084 Delegates Now.Only Needs 153 More

Although New Jersey is not voting until June 7th, if anything is certain in politics it is that its 51 delegate winner take all haul will go to Trump. Thus after Tuesday in reality his delegate total is 957+51=1008.

Frankly the near certainty of West Virginia's 34 delegates can be added to that so at 1042 it is perfectly clear Trump will be the nominee barring some catastrophe before California votes.

Including Pennsylvania's bound and the now pledged*, New Jersey and West Virginia in Tuesdays total Trump needs 153 bound delegates, to be assured of the nomination on the first ballot;

* "According to Nate Cohn, New York Times Trump takes 42 of 54 PA unbound delegates." 

"By my count, the Trump slate leads in 31 of 54 unpledged delegate slots. Another 11 delegates are pledged to the winner of their district.
also one of the 3 uncommitted PA delegates who leads said he was "leaning" Trump on MSNBC"

There is, realistically, a pool (not including West Virginia and New Jersey) of 325 delegates from the remaining primary states of Indiana 57, Oregon 28, Washington 44, New Mexico 24 and of course California 172. 

These are all, to some degree proportional either across the entire state or they are winner take all states plus winner of congressional districts. Thus Trump is guaranteed of a level of delegates from all of them.

I have not included Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota as they would, at this point, most likely be solid for Cruz. 

Nobody knows how the six "Trump states" will deliver their delegate numbers for him but, as per my analysis below based on current polling in Indiana and California and giving Trump a 50/50 split in Oregon/Washington/New Mexico, it seems reasonable to conclude Trump will pass the 1237 mark comfortably.

And that's without adding in whatever will be for him from the other 20 or so unbound delegates particularly from Guam/Virgin Islands/American Samoa.

At this point California alone would give Trump the nomination