Sunday, October 2, 2016

Tracking Poll Update;Against All MSM Memes Trump Rises Post Debate Including With Women

There are clearly two different realities regarding Trump's post debate polling. The MSM and the likes of Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight and Nate Cohn of the New York Times push the "Trump descends Hillary rises meme".

This refers to the grossly distorted CNN post debate "who won " poll (whilst 13 other polls had Trump the clear winner) and the now notorious "shape shifter" Reuters Poll which seems to adjust their findings to ensure Hillary leads.

Mason Dixon Polling gives Hillary a one point lead in Florida based on their finding that Trump has only 1% Black support in the state-a state where even Romney got 5% against President Obama!

Post debate polls Fox gives Clinton a +3 lead, Rasmussen a +1 lead and PPP, which is categorized as a Dem firm gives Clinton +4. Silver advises the post debate aggregate  lead is +3.5 but the RCP average is 2.6 (four candidates) and +3 head to head too date.

There have been no significant moves in the few post debate state polls, with Michigan and New Jersey showing a degree of movement to Trump from their previous polling, but not enough to put either in jeopardy for Clinton.

In the other reality, the reputable tracking polls USC/LATimes which is recognized by Real Clear Politics and UPI/C which is used by Huffington Post Pollster there is a very different story. Firstly UPI/C

"The UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Saturday shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by nearly 2 percentage points.
The online poll shows Trump with 49.31 percent, to Clinton's 47.34 percent.
Trump has gained more than 3 percentage points and Clinton has lost more than 1 point over the course of seven days, the poll's full sample size."
We can see the change in Trumps deficit to lead from September 27th, the day of the debate, to the most recent poll September 29th.Thus the weeks seven day  poll includes two post debate samples but the trend is clear as five of the pre-debate polls had Trump behind, including by 2.9 points on one day

The long term trend is instructive, the trend to Trump, allowing for the ups and downs mostly caused by media beat-ups, is clear


In the USC/LA Times new poll Trump's trend line ticks back up again and his lead increased to 4.7 points. Trump has ascended sharply, allowing for the aforementioned MSM distortions since 9/22 as per the graph. 

His lead since the debate is clear (Clinton 42.2% Trump +4.7) and the poll is now 4 days post debate with only three more days to be 100% clear (it is a seven day rolling average)

 Green figures are aggregate of available tracking polls

A seemingly remarkable result is Trump gaining 2.4 points from Hillary amongst Females since the debate which runs counter to all MSM memes (and shows how smart women are)

26/9 to 10/1 changes
Females----------------------HC+9.4-----------HC+6.4------HC(-3.4)

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