Tuesday, July 21, 2015

With Trump At Breakaway Point; A Palin Endorsement Would End the Primary Campaign Now

I wrote the article below a few days ago before the media furore caused by Trump's comments on John McCain.
As I suspected rather than the media's and the GOP Establishment's dearest wish coming true, Trump has not only remained the front runner but has solidified and increased his lead.

At "Real Clear Politics" in their aggregate "Poll of Polls, which is the surest poll, Trump is now in first place an outside the margin of error at 18% to Bush's 13.8%. The latest individual poll Washington Post/ABC has Trump at 24%! with Walker in second at 13%.

The first poll taken after the McCain spat, which many in the media including Charlie Cooke and Stephen F. Hayes predicted would mark Trump's collapse actually had Trump solidly increase his level of support from their previous poll, and had him way out in front at 22% to Bush at 15%.

Now, these recent polls are marked by dramatic falls in support for Bush/Walker/Rubio/Cruz and especially Christie from 20% to 3%. These were considered the leading candidates.

 All the others, including Carson who has had a brief rise, are either falling or not moving out of the maximum of 3% area. With Trump making all the headlines he is sucking the air out the lower level candidates chances to get publicity and traction.

Since Trump has, so far, proven Teflon coated against the media at its worst and the blogosphere at its most evil then there is nothing they can do to stop him. The only stop for Trump would be if he does "self-destruct" (and at this point  it is hard to see what would cause that) or, he performs so badly at the debates, which would surprise me, or, if he lost badly in the first three primary battles.

On the other hand, since Trump is impervious to the media, in fact it is clear the more they pile on the more the base likes him, he is in the rare position of getting so far out in front that it will be all but over for the rest of the candidates as I stated below.

And again, the impetus for such an advance would be if Governor Palin endorsed Trump, asked her supporters to vote for him and actively campaigned for him. I have no doubt whatsoever that at that point Trump would receive most of the support that the "conservative" candidates like Santorum/Huckabee and especially Carson have.

That alone would put him well over 30% and open daylight between him and Walker/Bush. Under the circumstances of a Palin endorsement I would believe he would go to 40% as one by one the minor candidates saw the game was up.

Whether Palin would endorse (there still is the possibility she might run and if she did the whole ball game would change at that point) is to be seen but what is indisputable is that if she did the race would explode in Trump's favor.

With Trump clearly in the ascendancy and every media attack meme failing ("he won't run/register/release tax-income info/has no chance/alienated Hispanics") the very real possibility exists that, even at this early stage, Trump could seal the deal.

Even if Trump reinforces his image of a straight talking successful businessman with concrete ideas when the debates commence it would not necessarily shake off all his rivals-they, especially Bush and Cruz, are too well funded.

But, nearing 20% polling now, and passing Jeb Bush, if Trump received a huge polling spike and the minor players started to pull out with their support going, in the main to him, then there would be 4-5 players. The scene would then be the field trailing far behind and Bush and the rest staying in, in the hope Trump self-destructed.

What would be the power that could propel Trump so far in front that is caused such a radical change in the current candidate placings and numbers? There is only one, and that would be if Sarah Palin endorsed him wholeheartedly and asked her supporters to vote and work for him.

Such a massive change has happened before with a Palin endorsement. Senators Ayotte/Cruz/Fischer/Sasse and many more in offices from governor to attorney general to congressmen owe their primary wins and election in whole or in part to Palin. For example, Cruz's rise from 3% to beating an establishment figure in Texas owed, by his admission, a massive debt to Palin's endorsement.

Trump however is not in the lowly poll position most of Palin's endorsed candidates were, rather he is in a sharp ascendancy in a crowded field.

If Palin made a strong public endorsement it is inconceivable that there would not then be a sudden and strong uptick in Trump's support and campaign workers (money not being in the equation). If Trump's polls lifted to over 30%, whilst Bush stayed in the 12-14% level he currently is in, then momentum would put Trump in an almost unassailable lead.

What point would there be, except vanity or book sales perhaps, for the likes of Graham/Fiorina/Santorum/Huckabee and all the other sub 5% candidates to stay in a hopeless race? As they dropped out if even half of their support also transferred to Trump he would be approaching 40%.

If, at that level of support he won the first primary states, which he should in a situation where a plurality was needed to win, then it would be game over.

Would Palin give such an endorsement? At this point in time there is still a window of opportunity for her to enter the lists herself is she so desired. In my opinion the window is closing and if she has not decided by the end of August it would seem unlikely that she would enter. If she does enter then it is of course a whole different ball game. 

But if she is not in the race, the end of August would appear to be a perfect time for her to endorse. If she does, and it is Trump, then the Republican primary would, for all intents and purposes, be over. 

The leftist media and the "snark" blogs and Dem fronts like "HuffingtonPost" would have a field day attacking a Palin endorsement of Trump. 

But their attacks would fail even more badly then they have done so far as the ordinary base voter would have had a gutful of their elitism and be driven even further to Trump's side-himself a victim of their snobbery.

See: (LINK) "Update;Trump Destroys Bush In Nevada:Trump's First Month In The Polls Has Devastated All Opposition (Graphs)"