At this point in time the red states on this map appear a lock. If the 2010 elections confirm this then the 2012 presidential election hinges on Virginia/Ohio/Iowa which gives the Republicans, as things now stand, a very good chance of winning. It doesn't matter how much of President Obama's anti-Palin base turns out in massively in California, and even more so in New York, whose electoral votes are declining rapidly and is now balanced out by Florida.
The biggest question will be if his Black and liberal support in Virginia will hold as it did in 2008-however the loss of Virginia to the Dem's could be overcome by winning Colorado and Nevada.
The map below is updated by Texas 38 Florida 29 New York 29 Missouri 10 . The totals for the Republicans are 272 electoral votes (270 required)
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