Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Chris Matthews Is Correct.When Smoke Clears After November Democrats Will be Left With Only Their Coast Redoubts

Chris Matthews remarked on "Hardball" to the effect that after the coming tsunami the Dem's will basically be only a force on the East and West coasts-their "redoubts". Actually it is worse than that for them as Rossi may win in Washington  and of course the Republicans have Snowe and Collins and will have Ayotte as senators on the East Coast.


The East Coast redoubt will also have a bastion of Republican strength with Governor Christie in N.J. So effectively the Dem's strength in the electoral college will be composed of the New England states, New York (which is at 29 electoral votes-the same as Florida- a shadow of its former dominance) and New Jersey.

Pennsylvania and especially Ohio (also dropping in electoral votes down to only 18 as the population shifts to Republican states) can't be included in a "redoubt". Delaware, Maryland and D.C. round out the last strength for the Dem's.


Out West only California, Oregon and Washington are safe, which added to Illinois Minnesota and Michigan, round out the Dem's electoral base for  the foreseeable future. I have covered this off in an analysis of Palin's path to electoral college victory which mirrors, nearly exactly, Matthews premise at the end of this clip;


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