Monday, October 4, 2010

Gaining Support Of Center/Left Women Key To Palin's Success.Outreach By Policy Is Her Main Chance

According to a Politico/GWU poll  Sarah Palin's ratings with women are;

Republican Women:    Favorable 76%
Democratic Women:   Favorable 11%  Unfavorable 82%
All Women:                 Favorable 38%  Unfavorable 54%

As discussed previously her Favorable/Unfavorable rating is gradually improving with the
analysis by showing her overall rating currently at : Favorable 40.4/Unfavorable 50.0%

Her overall ratings with independents is 42/45 so that is looking promising. Clearly the biggest problem for Palin is with non-Republican women, particularly of course Democratic women. Nobody would expect the latter group to move anywhere near parity of course, but can anything be done to swing say 20% to her ? This would, along with further positive movement from independents, put her overall ratings near or at the 50% mark which could be a launching pad for the 2012 presidential elections.

 Palin's current ratings are not because of any universal dislike of her by all women-obviously that is far from the case given her ratings with Republican women. Nor is her problem with independent women where she is near parity, so there is no "gender divide" per se. Clearly the problem is with women who hold a left-wing viewpoint. For this exercise we can discount those across all three areas of the political spectrum who are totally of the "a woman's right to choose" mindset who would oppose any person, male or female of any political party, who held to a "right to life" position.

We can exclude hard-core feminists, a large number of whom would most likely have the "choose" mindset anyway, and would be leftists by inclination as well. There would remain a number of women voters who would run the spectrum from independent to center-left, who are open minded on abortion, or who would not consider totally opposing a candidate who held a position dissimilar to theirs. Their current non-support of Palin would be "soft" and might be based on a number of factors which might be addressed.

These might range from simple aspects of personality e.g.Palin being perceived as too "folksy" or her education not being elite enough, or provincial background ,or even how she looks, dresses or the tone of her voice. These may seem trivial but if they resonate with enough people, a potential pool of voters, then they matter. I believe the problem lies with non-defined policies and, should Palin decide to run, it is exactly this area which will need to be addressed immediate upon announcement of candidacy, and which has the most potential to garner her the biggest uptick in support.

I believe Palin needs to define her positions beyond the current "restoring America, lower tax, support for small business, common sense policies" statements which are fine for her current candidate support and commentator role. If she can present a clearly thought out, sharp and concise, set of policy solutions to the very real problems confronting America, with particular emphasis on those which are of major concern to women, she will be in a very strong position to win the nomination. This, by bringing into her body of support, those women who are tractable. The minor concerns, like appearance etc, will disappear with a presentation of Palin the thinker and solution provider.

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