Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Leftist Women Stand Between Palin And The Presidency.

In a previous analysis based on data provided by a major polling firm GWU, Sarah Palin had the following favorable/unfavorable ratings:

Republican Women: Favorable 76%

Democratic Women: Favorable 11% Unfavorable 82%
All Women: Favorable 38% Unfavorable 54%
Her overall ratings based on (excluding network polls) were;
Favorable 40.4/Unfavorable 50.0%  and importantly, her ratings with independents was 42/45 .

Conservatives4Palin has presented a new poll which further confirms the trends GWU polling showed. It is important to understand the forces at play so they can be addressed. It does no good whatsoever to ignore them as turning a blind eye to reality is otiose-especially with so much at stake. If Palin's latest poll percentages-currently at 46/49 can be moved only slightly then Palin has every chance of gaining the presidency in 2012.
In a poll conducted by Sienna college of  the New York State Congressional District 19, the following responses were given to the question " Do you have a favorable opinion or an unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin"
(Favorable/Unfavorable/Don't Know/No Opinion)

Overall 40/51/9         Men 46/43/11              Women 33/60/7

If we look deeper into the figures; Democratic 14/81/5    Republican 63/29/8  Independent 43/45/12

Her overall ratings mirror-almost exactly the result so it can be taken as a good guide to her nationwide standing at this point in time.The position with all women (the poll does not breakdown the response by party) mirrors the GWU poll but since the Sienna poll was taken in liberal NY it can explain the further shift into unfavorable territory amongst the women polled. Palin's ratings amongst non-Catholic/Protestants was 22/73/5. We can assume a large proportion of these would be (since in NY) Jewish, which would further move the figures against her.

Thus Palin's average of the two polls with all women is 36 favorable to 57 unfavorable. At 76% favorable with Republican women there is not much more that can be reaped from that field. Thus for Palin to gain the extra overall support she needs to move across the 50% level, she has to increase her ratings with the 13% of independents in the "don't know' category, and make inroads into the 82% of Democratic women who oppose her.

What to do?  Firstly is her position on abortion the overarching reason for such opposition? Palin polls 49/41/10 with Catholics so her position obviously resonates but at 40/49 /11 with Protestants it does not appear to be the deal breaker. Is it because she is a woman? Did what happened to Hillary Clinton and the substantial support that Obama received from women show that leftist women prefer a male candidate?
Palin's huge support from conservative women proves it is not an attitude, if that is the case, all women have, rather only leftist women. But if that is the case-then why is it so if it is not totally dependent on the abortion issue?

This question-the attitude of women on the left to Palin is I believe the single most important matter (there is no problem with the right which would preclude a run for the nomination) for the Palin team to consider and address if they wish to make a run for the presidency in 2012.

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