Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Best Base For Palin in 2012 is....Miami

On election night 2012 if, about the first hour after polls close, the projection is that Florida has gone for Obama, then Republicans might as well turn off their televisions and pour themselves a stiff drink as they contemplate four more years of watching the golfer-in-chief.

As the map below shows, if the GOP loses Florida there is no way, outside of a miraculous win in Pennsylvania, which is highly unlikely if Florida were lost, that there is an alternative path to the required 270 Electoral College majority. Thus doing everything possible to win Florida is an absolute priority for a Palin presidential run

There has been media speculation that Palin is looking to base her campaign, should it eventuate, in Arizona. This, no doubt, has an appeal for her given family considerations with her daughter Bristol and her grandchild  having recently moved there, but for two reasons it is not the best option.

Firstly there is the memory of Palin's being unfairly pilloried by the media for her supposed connection with the Gifford's tragedy, and the subsequent further attacks on her for her, entirely justified, defense when she commented on the shootings. Being true to form the media, and of course the Dem's, would constantly harp on Palin being based in Arizona as a supposed indication of her "insensitivity". A sad, but inescapable, and frankly to be avoided, harsh reality.

Secondly, in purely Electoral College practicalities, if by being based in the South-West the aim is to shore up that area, then it seems a sub-optimal option. If, by the time the polls had closed in Arizona, Florida had been lost, then winning the states of Colorado and Arizona would be meaningless. It would be understandable that the thinking might be, that being based in Arizona would make travel to Alaska easier than from Florida, but for winning the election it would also be meaningless.

It is no mystery as to why the Dem's are holding their convention in North Carolina and the Republicans in Florida. Those states, plus Virginia and Ohio are the winning or losing (Ohio/Florida definitely, Virginia/North Carolina probably) of the 2012 election. For Palin, if based in Florida, they can all be readily visited on as many occasions as needed to win them-to be based so far away in Arizona might be to give away the election.

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