Sunday, March 27, 2011

Gallup Shows Support For Palin Grouping Rises Whilst Romney Declines

Once again the media, in their  haste to write Sarah Palin off as a presidential candidate have, for the most part completely misread the latest Gallup poll which showed Palin dropping back to 12 % from 16% amongst GOP preferences. Firstly here are the results of the aggregate polls from February 8th
"The Real Clear Politics polling aggregate of 8 major polling firms shows, as I have been regularly promoting that the combined Palin/Huckabee support amongst GOP voters is up to more than double that for Romney who is the next highest choice.
The RCP average for Palin/Huckabee is 35.3% and for Romney it is 18.8%. This result is perfectly in line with the 33%-40% that the Palin/Huckabee support level has been running at for months as set out previously.

If we look at the current Gallup polling we see the following:

Firstly Palin's result is within the normal margin of error and could be 16% but if we take it at face value we find the Huckabee/Palin support at  31%. What has happened  to affect this is the 5% of support for Bachman who is the current media darling (this changes almost  daily). It would be expected that her 5% has come from Palin's support or, to put it another way, if she had not announced an interest in running the majority of her support would go to Palin.

Thus according to the Gallup poll, the forces represented by Huckabee/Palin Bachman garner 36% whereas Romney's support has fallen from 18.8% to
15%. It is clear, as poll after poll has consistently shown that the grass roots wants a true conservative candidate.

In reality Bachman stands no chance whatsoever to win the nomination. The above results show it is to be decided by what Mike Huckabee does. the Gallup analysis shows that if he does not run his supporters would go, in the main to Palin and she and Romney would be running neck and neck.

If that was the case then the early primaries of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina might be decisive. The odds are,given the structure of those states, that Palin would win two out of the three and be well on  her way to the nomination.


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