Saturday, July 30, 2011

Pew Poll;Romney 21% Tea Party Candidates 43% The True State Of GOP Nomination

The latest Pew Research poll of Republican preferences makes it strikingly clear what the GOP rank and file want. They want a candidate who is supported by the Tea Party, or has values which are Tea Party centered.

What they don't want is the business as usual, flip-flopping Beltway insider candidates. If all the Tea Party focussed candidates support is added up it is more than twice that of Romney's and much more than a combination of Romney/Gingrich/Pawlenty (if Pawlenty is added to the Tea party then of course the huge plurality becomes even more obvious). 

In another poll, from Gallup, which had Giuliani included, his support, plus Romney's, was still well below the Tea Party candidates support levels.

If the RealClearPolitics aggregate results across all major polls is examined the Romney/Gingrich/Giuliani result is 39.9% and the Tea Party support is 45.1% with Pawlenty left of both at 2.8%.

The danger for the Tea Party, and for the insiders candidates for that matter, is that if the Tea Party voters do not coalesce around a single candidate then Romney could win enough primary votes to have an insurmountable lead come convention time. If that were the case, and given the clear preference for a non-Romney candidate, the Republicans might well lose the ensuing general election because so many disaffected and disappointed Tea party voters might simply stay at home.

The choice of candidate speculation is just that until Sarah Palin makes her decision as to whether she will run, or if she will endorse someone else-expected on September 3rd. 

If she chooses to run then it is quite possible that there will be an immediate winnowing out of the other Tea Party supported candidates and if that happens her support would quickly surpass that of Romney.

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