The writing on the wall; Iowa's consistent polling
Romney 20 %
Non-Romney 44 %
Libertarian 24 %
Or in even starker terms Romney 20% Non-Romney 68 %
One could of course divide out any of the non-Romney's e.g. Gingrich, and get a stark result e.g. Gingrich 13% Non-Gingrich
75% but that of course misses the point altogether.
The point is that Romney is supposed to be the inevitable nominee, the owner of the "next in line, it's his turn" mantle. That flies in the face of the consistent Iowa polling. Let's face facts, what we see in Iowa is Christian conservatives 44 % RINO/Beltway/Mormon 20% Unelectable Libertarian 24 %.
The rank and file don't want Romney. He may win in New Hampshire, but the polls so far show that Iowa South Carolina and Florida don't want him.
It may be an anti-RINO feeling which may dissipate to some degree come November, but reading conservative blogs there is a dogged determination not to vote for a RINO this time.
If Romney does get the nomination, via the fracturing of the conservative vote, the subsequent stay at home level of usual GOP voters could doom his campaign-if Trump and Gary Johnson have not done so anyway.
CONSERVATIVES4PALIN has this view of the PPP poll results;