Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Palin's Pick Cruz's Texas Win Is Her 7th Straight Endorsement Victory

Poltico has called it for Cruz.

Ted Cruz, having won the GOP's Texas Senate primary race tonight starting from 3% in the polls, makes it seven straight wins in a row for Palin endorsed candidates. The polling history makes it an indisputable fact that Palin was the key factor in Cruz's rise and victory as he has happily admitted.

The likes of Doug Mataconis at Outside The Beltway and Maggie Haberman at Politico consider Palin has 
 a "dwindling band of supporters" and "Is not as relevant as she used to be" but clearly the people that count-the voters, think otherwise.

Palin stated when she decided against running for president in 2012 "you don't need a title to make a difference". The fact that the Senate is being shaped into "Palin's Senate" election by election, shows this to be true. In fact in November 12 members of the senate may be there because of Palin's endorsement to one degree or another.

Saxby Chambliss/ Orrin Hatch/Kelly Ayotte/Ted Cruz/Richard Mourdock/ Deb Fischer/Marco Rubio/Rand Paul/ Sarah Steelman/Jeff Flake/Pat Toomey/John Boozman are all assisted by a Palin endorsement of their campaigns. 

Presuming all are in the Senate in November, which seems likely, that is a substantial block of Palin endorsed conservatives-perhaps 25% of the GOP's Senate Caucus. Who knows what that may mean if there is a battle for the GOP's 2016 presidential candidate nod. In the meantime it means a solid block of conservative votes in policy making.

Here is the history of Cruz's remarkable rise and the Palin effect on his campaign.
"The Hill" gives credit where it is due "Ted Cruz: the Sarah Palin Phenomenon"

Subsequent to Sarah Palin's endorsement of him, GOP candidate for senator from Texas Ted Cruz has completed the astonishing journey from polling at only 3% to being in the final run-off to winning the primary battle. Cruz having kept the previously presumed winner Dewhurst below 50% in tonight's primary battle.


92% reportingTed Cruz

David Dewhurst


Clearly this last minute Tweet by Palin to Texans, and her previous robocall, made a major contribution to Cruz's success in getting into the run-off tonight;

Sarah Palin

Dear Texans, please remember to vote today for Ted Cruz for U.S. Senate!

The Cruz rise follows on from Palin's remarkable success in assisting conservative candidates, who were outsiders and initially polling lowly, into becoming winners. Richard Mourdock in Indiana and Deb Fischer in Nebraska are the two latest, whom even Palin's enemies have grudgingly admitted were assisted by her into the winners circle.

Cruz is the last in the recent trifecta of come from behind wins (Palin also endorsed Hatch in Utah) then his win,following  his getting into the run-off by denying Dewhurst a first round victory, will be perhaps the most remarkable of Palin's picks, and her place as king maker will have to be accepted by the punditry.

Of course not all Palin's picks will win.That would be impossible, as some choices will have so little prospect of winning even though they are of outstanding quality. However her winning percentage is remarkable as is the enthusiasm her endorsments bring.

Here is remarkable polling history for Cruz.

January 2011 Dewhurst 23% Cruz 3% (Dewhurst +20)


Post PALIN endorsement poll May 21st

Democrat Pollster PPP Polling (D) on May 24th
Dewhurst 46% Cruz 29% (Dewhurst +17)
PPP also found this result;

"Even though Rick Perry's candidate is likely to defeat Sarah Palin's, her endorsement polls much more positively. 36% of voters say they're more inclined to back a Palin supported candidate to 21% who consider it a negative. Perry's stock with Texas Republicans has fallen so far his endorsement is actually a net minus with 24% saying it would make them more inclined to vote for his candidate to 28% who say less likely."

All three long-shot wins showed the courage of conviction by Palin who put conviction above self-interest. Certainly, if the long-shots had all lost, the leftist media would have totally written her off as irrelevant, whereas now they (or rather some) suddenly discover "the power of Palin".

Senator Hatch actively sought Palin's interaction and endorsement and, as has been the case with all the people she has endorsed in this magnificent string of wins, he went up in the polls subsequently to 60% to 32%.  Prior to Palin's endorsement Hatch had failed to be able to not be primaried as he received 59.1% 

In some ways Palin's endorsement of Senator Hatch took more courage than her endorsment of some of the other recent candidates whose electoral path might have seemed to be harder.

Palin received a huge amount of negative comments from the right for her Hatch endorsement but, once again, she has put her principles ahead of whatever personal cost may have come her way. This is why Palin stands head and shoulders above so many in the political world.


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