Wednesday, February 9, 2011

If Huckabee's Reported PAC Closure Means He's Out Then The 40% Palin/Huck Poll Support has Only One Place To Go

Race For 2012 reports Huckabee For President Inc. has filed termination papers with the FEC. If this means, which is one of two possibilities,  i.e. that he will not run in 2012. Given his renewed Fox contract and his building a huge home in Florida whilst having paid off his last campaign debts that seems a strong possibility.


Where does this  leave the GOP "12 race?


As I have presented previously the combined Palin/Huckabee polling amongst Republicans across the country and in many individual states gives a return of between 33%-40%. 


Sometimes Huckabee leads and sometimes Palin does .The main point  is however that, in general,  the combined result is up to twice that of the nearest competitor mitt Romney.


Further polling analysis shows that  the second choice of the majority of Huckabee's supporters is,as would be expected, Sarah Palin. Thus, if that holds true for Iowa and South Carolina then, should she choose to run, Palin should win both states easily. If there is a credible leftist challenger to Romney in New Hampshire then on a split vote Palin might come through the middle.


If that was the case then even before South Carolina she would be unstoppable. In any scenario shown so far the main point is that the rank and file want a conservative candidate. If Huckabee is out of the running then that can only be Palin.
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 Jan. 21-23 Oct. 27-30 Aug. 6-10 Apr. 9-11 Mar 19-21 
  2011 2010 2010 2010 2010
 Huckabee 21% 21% 14% 24% 17% 
 Palin 19% 14% 18% 15% 18% 
 Romney 18% 20% 21% 20% 22% 
 Gingrich 10% 12% 15% 14% 8% 
 Paul 7% 7% 10% 8% 8% 
 Barbour 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 
 Daniels* 3% N/A N/A N/A N/A 
 Pawlenty 3% 3% 3% 2% 5% 
 Pence 1% 3% 3% 2% 4% 
 Santorum 1% 2% 2% 3% 5% 
 Thune* 1% N/A N/A N/A N/A 
 Someone else (vol.) 5% 7% 6% 5% 8% 
 None/ No one (vol.) 4% 4% * 5% 2% 
 No opinion 2% 6% 4% 1% 3% 
* Daniels and Thune not included on the list prior to the January 21-23, 2011 poll 



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