Thursday, June 16, 2011

A Giuliani Run Would Be Palin's Best Shot At Nomination And Presidency

According to the New York Post Rudy Giuliani has met with NJ Governor Chris Christie and Texas Governor Rick Perry to canvass their views and potential support for his running for the GOP nomination.

This follows on from a CNN poll in June where Giuliani was way out on front of all other potential GOP presidential candidates in the favourable stakes with 55% with Palin tied for second at 39%.

Favorable- Unfavor- Never heard of- No opinion
Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
June 3-7, 2011 28% 24% 37% 11%
Businessman Herman Cain
June 3-7, 2011 17% 10% 62% 11%
Newt Gingrich
June 3-7, 2011 30% 44% 16% 10%
Rudy Giuliani
June 3-7, 2011 55% 25% 11% 9%
Former Utah Governor John Huntsman
June 3-7, 2011 13% 11% 60% 16%
Sarah Palin
June 3-7, 2011 39% 52% 2% 7%
Texas Congressman Ron Paul
June 3-7, 2011 34% 26% 25% 15%
Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
June 3-7, 2011 20% 18% 44% 18%
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
June 3-7, 2011 39% 29% 17% 15%
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
June 3-7, 2011 16%

And an opinion poll on candidate choice with Rudy running first 

Thus there are solid indication that a Giuliani campaign would not be quixotic nor a vanity campaign as some have suggested.Rather, as the Weekly Standard sets out in their "Rudy's Running article there is a clear path to the nomination in the minds of his supporters;

"Rudy's theory of the race: In the fall of 2007, he decided he couldn't compete with both Mitt Romney and John McCain in New Hampshire, and disastrously decided to try to pull back there and pitch his tent in Florida. This year, he'll commit everything to New Hampshire, where he thinks he has a good shot at beating Romney—whom he criticized there earlier this week. He then thinks he can beat whichever more socially conservative candidate(s) is left by winning what are still likely to be winner-take-all primaries in big states like California, New York, and New Jersey."

If Rudy runs and Palin does  as well then he could be the lynch pin to her winning the nomination. It would seem unlikely that he would win the Iowa caucus which Palin would have a good chance of winning. Palin would be unlikely to win in New Hampshire but if Giuliani were on the ballot (and possibly Huntsman) he might split enough of the vote with Romney to let her come through the middle.Then with two wins straight up she would be the odds on favorite in South Carolina and on a quick run to the nomination. Even if Giuliani did pick up some of the big delegate rich states like New York the Obama campaign proved that the weight of the smaller states can counter that.

If this scenario holds then Giuliani would be the ideal vice-presidential candidate in tandem with Palin. he brings a wealth of experience, is highly respected is a great debater and in polls has the support of the rank and file for the VP slot with her and has supported her vigorously.The Palin/Giuliani team would have every asset for the campaign against President Obama and his being on the ticket would be the winning edge.

No comments: