Tuesday, June 12, 2012

PPP Poll;"Romney Leads In N.Carolina" But So What?

The Blogosphere/Twitterverse is agog over a new PPP Polling (D) poll  AT THIS LINK that has President Obama behind Mitt Romney in North Carolina "for the first timesince October". This appears to be partly the result of, variously, the "Enthusiasm gap/Blacks deserting Obama/Young people dispirited" and of course the general state of the economy.

Amongst the doom and gloom for Obama, with articles appearing on the lines of "who will be Romney's Secretary of State" a little bit of reality should, surely, poke its head out. Obama won North Carolina, unexpectedly, when everything was going well for his campaign. Even with the economic collapse seeming imminent and McCain's lacklustre campaign only kept afloat by Sarah Palin, Obama won North Carolina by less than 1%.

To expect North Carolina, and Indiana to stay with the Dem's this time around, when the gloss has worn off the Obama team is not realistic. On the other hand what the doomsters are not advising is that Obama does not need North Carolina or Indiana, or even Florida with its huge 29 electoral votes.

The RCP map from a few weeks ago is entirely relevant. All Obama needs is New Hampshire, where he has a commanding lead, and either Ohio, or more realistically at this point, Virginia which he won last time comfortably.

He could even win without those two states by winning Colorado and Iowa which he also won handily in 2008. It is still the early silly season in campaign reporting and the media has to figure out how to get eyeballs to their pages/sites no matter how silly their columns are.

Bottom line is that North Carolina is a must win for Romney, but for Obama, not so much.

No comments :