Saturday, June 30, 2012

Gallup;Romney 43% At McCain's Pre-Palin Level.Game Change VP Needed?

At Real Clear Politics the Gallup tracking poll has Mitt Romney at 43% against President Obama and declining. Although in the Electoral College (the latest map from is illustrated below) Romney has never been ahead, he is currently a massive 114 EC votes behind, he has been up to 5 points ahead of Obama in the tracking polls.

To go from 55% to 43% in a matter of weeks is a poor indicator for the Romney campaign, with the usual caveats "polls don't count this far out, people are not paying attention and etc.

Be that as it may when the McCain team sank to 43% they considered what they might do to fire up the base and lift their numbers. 

They certainly did not turn to a "boring white man" and it beggars belief that if they had chosen Romney or Pawlenty McCain would have passed candidate Obama in the polls as he did after Palin was chosen. 

The history of the McCain campaign including of course Palin's dramatic entry and McCain's subsequent rise from doldrums to leader, is brilliantly set out 
AT THIS LINK Further, the polling history from Gallup in 2008, chronicling McCain at 43% then rising to being in the lead, and the reason for his loss, is set out under the map below this post.

Does anyone believe that if Romney adds Portman or Pawlenty or Daniels or Thune to his ticket that he will get such a polling lift that he will pass President Obama either now or post convention? 

It may be that the Romney team will go the "no drama" route and hope that either the economic situation does for Romney what it did for Obama or that the base will turn out,with eyes closed having someone else help them to put their tick next to Mitt, and vote for him because of  their "anyone but Obama" imperative.

Both of those situations may not happen. The economy might just dawdle along enough, the bully pulpit and the assistance of the leftist media might play their traditional roles and libertarian Ron Johnson might take enough conservtaive protest votes to give Obama another term.

One thing is certain though, if Romney chose Palin (if she would accept the role of course) or a Palin then he would get an immediate lift in support from most of the base. The enthusiasm for "Palin" would be palpable, as it was in 2008 and the negatives from 2008 would not come into play this time.

Everything the left could possibly dig up, make up and vomit up against Palin has been dug,made,vomited. Every aspect of her and the life of every member of her family has been dissected and distorted. The public are no doubt tired of the imitators and the "I can see Alaska shtick is tired and forlorn. No this time around the media would have to report on Palin's actual words not the caricature they make of her.

This time around Palin would be just as combative, possibly more so, and she would be media savy and not open, in her honestly and innocence, to the traps the MSM and the Journolist conspiracy set for her. 

This time around, if there was a major economic downturn like the one that derailed the McCain campaign in 2008, it would be the Obama team which would feel the full brunt of the ire of the public and the spearhead thrusts of Palin.

Romney can play it safe and possibly suffer a worse defeat than McCain, or he can go for a game changer. History will show how his first "executive" decision turns out, but he has the option now to gain the base.

Gallup polls from the last presidential race prove that once Palin joined the ticket on Aug. 29, 2008, McCain’s ratings steadily climbed to a point where the Republican ticket even out shined Democratic Sen. Barack Obama.
In the two weeks before Palin joined the McCain ticket, the Arizona senator drifted in the low 40 percentile range, mostly around 41, 42 and 43 percent, while Obama held as much as an 8 point lead at about 49 and 50 percent. Four days after Palin joined the ticket, however, McCain’s numbers climbed to 45 percent and Obama’s sank to 47 percent, narrowing the gap significantly from eight points to two.
Between Sept. 4-6, McCain and Palin actually overshot the Obama ticket by 3 percent with the Republicans in the lead at 48 percent and the Democrats at only 45. McCain consistently held that lead until Sept. 15, and then the candidates balanced out with Obama enjoying a mere three-point lead, and no lead at all from Sept. 22-24, when the numbers were tied at 46 percent.
Some were intrigued as to how McCain’s decision would play out in the polls, but once he suspended his campaign in late September he never recaptured the lead he enjoyed with the breaking news of recruiting Palin.
It was downhill from there.
McCain’s campaign was taken out of suspension, but it never actually got back off the ground. From then, the gap between McCain and Obama only widened, leaving the Republicans at a severe disadvantage. McCain’s numbers remained steady around 42 and 43 percent throughout October, but Obama’s continued climbing, and by October 31, McCain’s standing had dropped to 40 percent and Obama’s had reached 53 percent - a devastating 13-percent gap.

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