Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Palin Led Tea Party Block At 25%/33% In Gallup/PPP Polls Perry at 25%/27%

The realistic way to consider these two polls is that Perry will, like Bachman, eventually drift down as the media hype slackens and he comes under the media blowtorch (unless that is his candidacy is unique and he runs away with it). 

Should that eventuate  and he stays with a solid level of support, as does Romney then the coalescing on the Tea Party grouping will be the key factor.

If Palin declares and has the 11% to 13% base in these polls,which should increase once voters see she is a candidate then the Palin/Bachman/Cain/Santorum block starts at  25%-33%.

As Bachman appears to have shot her bolt and at some point both Cain and Santorum will drop out then, as Palin picks up their support, Bachman's supporters will realistically only have on place to go if they want their values represented and that is, in the main, to Palin.

There would of course be some bleeding to other candidates but given that even with Perry's ascendency the Tea Party block is still the largest in this scenario then it is surely to be expected the bulk of the 33%  would go to an avowed Tea Party leader. At the height of Perrymania the Perry/Romney block is 39% in Gallup so there is everything to play for.

These two polls show a surprisingly strong level of support for Palin, and should she make the announcement that she is running on September 3rd, or sometime in September, then she has every chance of winning the nomination based on these two major polls, even if Perry increases his, support as long as Romney stays in the running right to the end.

Whilst enjoyed the Palin possibilities enjoy this outstanding pop/rock/house/funk track (hard to categorize as it crosses a lot of genres but is fantastic) by CINEMA 90

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