Wednesday, October 12, 2011

First Signs Of Gingrich/Palin Coalition Surface?



During the latest Republican candidates debate at the Bloomberg-Washington Post debate at Dartmouth College New Hampshire, Newt Gingrich made a strong statement of support for Sarah Palin. Gingrich said that during the health care debate Palin faced "unfair criticism" for her "death panels " statement. The full story is at  THIS LINK.


Why Gingrich would choose to defend Palin at this point is a matter of some conjecture. It, his statement, comes at a time when, subsequent to Palin announcing she is not a candidate, Gingrich was reported  as having contacted Todd Palin to discuss the Palin's possible support of his candidacy.


There has been a small, but noticeable rise in support for Gingrich in the polls. PPP Polling shows at  THIS LINK  Gingrich is the only candidate outside of Romney and Cain who has increased his support in Iowa. Further, as I presented in this analysis of a possible Gingrich/Palin inter-action, Gingrich has also risen in the Hot Air online poll of activists. This was a puzzle to the editor who asked for an explanation (which I provided  at  THIS LINK which also has the link to the poll result).


In that article I indicated that I thought that if Palin was to endorse any candidate Gingrich would, for all the reasons I set out, be an outstanding choice. I posited a possible Gingrich/Palin ticket but an endorsement and a Secretary of Energy cabinet position would perhaps be better for Palin's long term prospects. If she took the second spot on the ticket out of loyalty to party and country, and the ticket lost, then having two losing VP runs under her belt would probably end any future presidential prospects. An endorsement would not cause any such concerns.


These latest, and other polls, show a spectacular rise for Herman Cain and an equally spectacular decline for Perry. This may be a valuable indication that what goes up, before media vetting, comes down just as quickly (with Bachmann  being the other example of course). It may be that Gingrich's slow and steady rise may be a classic tortoise and the hare situation-certainly he is well vetted-and if he does get to a substantial poll level he would not be in danger of the sudden deflation others have experienced.


If Perry falters further, and Cain implodes, then there is, reasonably, only one "Stop Romney" candidate, and that is Gingrich. If there is no clear front runner, and for all his supposed leading candidate status Romney is still not above 35%, then a convention with no candidate holding an overwhelming lead, could see a stop Romney movement have the other candidates throw their support to Gingrich after a number of inconclusive ballots. If at that point Palin made a strong pro-Gingrich speech from the podium he could well win the nomination.


One of the most significant signs of Gingrich's growing strength is that the redoubtable Stacy McCain has attacked him today at THIS LINK. McCain is a formidable far seeing reporter and, when nobody was giving Cain a second look months ago, McCain became a strong supporter for him. 


It would seem unlikely that McCain would waste his time attacking someone who had no chance of  derailing the Cain wagon and, based on the premise you only attack those you fear in politics, then Gingrich is one to watch.


 As is Palin, if she makes any statement supporting Gingrich, then there will be something stirring  (this is what the respected Prof. Jacobson at Legal Insurrection commented on Gingrich's debate performance; "I’m still glowin’, I’m still crowin’, I’m still goin’ strong") under the radar-which you read about here first of course.

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