Sunday, February 19, 2012

GOP Establishment Needn't Worry If Romney Falters: Palin/Rubio Can Win Electoral College

According to the media and noted commentators  AT THIS LINK the Beltway/Establishment side of the GOP is starting to worry about Santorum's ascendancy. 

A mystery senator commented that if Romney loses Michigan (and if that happened he would probably lose Ohio massively) the party needs to look for a late entry candidate. The mystery senator nominated Jeb Bush for the "White Knight" rescue mission role.

The thinking being that a late entrant could win enough of the remaining primary states to ensure a brokered convention, and then the back room dealing could give the late entrant the nomination. 

Jeb Bush appears to be the chosen one because he has name recognition, a successful stint as governor of a key swing state, has links to the establishment, and could raise the required funds to counter Romney's money in a short period.

The problem with that scenario is Bush would sink like a stone. All that he would do would be a Huntsman and take a small amount of votes from Romney-presuming Romney carried on. 

If Romney left the field then all that would happen would be the shift of one candidate with no appeal to the base, to another with no appeal to the base.

What the Dem's and the media would do in face of another Bush is to scary to contemplate. Who else? Daniels-Mr. wooden man whose wife won't let him out to play? 

Christie? The base would gag at such a prospect, and he is a Romney supporter, enough said. Jindal stuffed up his one big nationwide chance with his terrible response to the State if the Union address. Thune? Who?

There is only one person who could have an immediate and massive response from the base.Who could tap into the financial support from 3 million Facebook followers, who would have an army of dedicated volunteers, and who has a record of success as a governor. 

Who is acceptable to social and liberal conservatives, evangelicals, and mainstream Catholic and Protestants, and has instant name recognition, and can deliver a speech with the best of them. Palin of course. It would be a bitter pill for the establishment to swallow, but they did it before, and she almost gave them a win, but for Lehman brothers getting in the way.

If the electoral map below is examined it is clear that the GOP, with the right candidate can win, with a bit of room in the electoral college count to lose either Colorado or Iowa. Florida is the key though. 

If Florida is lost then Obama wins, there is no scenario where the GOP can win otherwise-I can't see the Republicans carrying Pennsylvania if they lose Florida or Virginia either frankly.

If Romney falters then the establishment should look seriously at a Palin/Rubio ticket. That would give an excellent chance of carrying Florida with the support of the Hispanic vote, and would assist with Colorado as well. 

It would be an Anglo/Hispanic, female/male Protestant/Catholic ticket with so much going for it. Instead of looking in all the wrong places, the establishment has a winning combination right in front of their noses-hopefully common sense will prevail against prejudice, and they will go with this winning team.

No comments: