Tuesday, February 21, 2012

In Smart Move Gingrich Quits Michigan Leaving Santorum As Beneficiary

According to Politico AT THIS LINK Newt Gingrich has followed up on his advice on radio last week that he would not campaign in Michigan by confirming that his subsequent tentative plans to visit Michigan are cancelled.

Gingrich will be in Arizona, another state he has little chance in for the debate but seems to not have any major plans there either. Whilst this may be a knock back to his campaign publicity wise it is a very smart move when looked at in the long term.

If by not campaigning in Michigan and Arizona his supporters get the message and vote for Santorum and he wins that would be a disaster for Romney.

 If Santorum then goes on to win in Ohio, Oklahoma and Washington, all states he currently leads in then Romney would appear to have no chance of winning enough delegates to ensure a first ballot win in Tampa-after which who knows what might happen.

For Gingrich the risk is that Santorum might have enough momentum to win in Gingrich's home state of Georgia. Such a loss would be disastrous for newt and he would have to seriously look at staying in the campaign at that point as he would be constantly bombarded with "even his own state doesn't want him" propaganda.

A win with enough  delelgates from Georgia and then Texas, win or lose there, would be enough to keep Newt's campaign on the boil, whilst he piles up delegates in proportional wins-including Indiana-where Santorum is not on the ballot.

Also, who knows how the blowtorch that is now being applied to Santorum will work out. it may be that the evangelistic base is so pleased with what is revealed about santorum that it negates any negativity about him as being perceived as too religiously minded to be an effective candidate etc. If Newt sticks it out  things may turn out well for him eventually thus it is worth taking the risk of letting Santorum run away with things for a while I believe.

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