Monday, January 24, 2011

UPDATE;Rasmussen confirms; [Latest Poll Shows Palin/Huckabee At 40% For GOP Nomination-Romney at 17%. Clear Sailing For Palin]

Further to the Washington Post poll as detailed below which shows the Palin/Huckabee vote at 40% and Romney at 17% the latest Rasmussen poll confirms the general trend.

Rasmussen has Palin/Huckabee at 36% and Romney at 24%. According to Conservatives4Palin Rasmussen is using a different set of internals which disfavor Palin/Huckabee as they poll a lower number of self described Evangelicals.

Even so, and allowing for this alternative methodology the result is still the same margin of error wise. If Huckabee does not run then Palin has a substantial lead and, based on the three opening states primaries; Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina, she should win 2 out of three and be well on her way to the nomination.

Interestingly, since the Rasmussen poll of November 2009 Romney has stayed the same at 24%, Palin is up one to 19% and Huckabee has dropped 12% to 17%. This shows that, even with all the mass of negative publicity the left generated against Palin after the Arizona tragedy the people who really count,t he Republican voters, still view her, and her moral foundations, which they view as Huckabee also sharing, unchanged ,and what they want in their candidate.


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AS POSTED PREVIOUSLY

In a new Washington Post poll


21% of respondents advised they would support Huckabee 19% Palin and 17% Romney as detailed below.


No one else got into double figures and the latest left wing media selections for the GOP of the month Thune and Daniels hardly rated at all.


The 40% shared between Palin and Huckabee-a statistical tie are the only poll results that matter at this point in time for the 2012 election. The polls showing Palin 10 points behind Obama for example, two years out are meaningless as the Reagan polling below shows.


All that matters for Palin is,should she choose to run, how well will she do in the early primaries. Clearly, despite all the massive negative left wing media attacks she is still very popular with the base (80% in polls).


Polling has also shown that should Huckabee choose not to run, a strong possibility, then Palin is his supporters next choice. The numbers then, at this point, and should Huckabee not run, are very much on her side. Even Andrew Sullivan in a moment of lucidity when the PDS uterus fog lifted, said this week that he thinks the "nomination is still hers to lose" even given the media attacks and supposed general low poll rating.



37. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) I’m going to read a list of possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president in 2012. After you hear the list, please tell me, if the 2012 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? Which candidate would you lean toward?


NET LEANED VOTE

1/16/11 7/18/09



Mike Huckabee 21 26



Sarah Palin 19 19



Mitt Romney 17 21



Newt Gingrich 9 10



Chris Christie 8 NA



Rick Perry 3 NA



Mitch Daniels 2 NA



Tim Pawlenty 2 4



Mike Pence 2 NA



Haley Barbour 1 1



Jim DeMint 1 NA



Jon Huntsman 1 NA



Rick Santorum 1 NA



John Thune * NA



Other (vol.) 1 2



None of these (vol.) 6 5



Would not vote (vol.) * 1



No opinion 6 6

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