Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Gingrich's Iowa Placing Puts Him On Same Nomination Win Path As McCain

Rick Santorum's or Romney's Iowa victory will ultimately have the same meaning as did Huckabee's Iowa victory in 2008. 

Newt ran a respectable fourth tonight, at or better than McCain's 2008 vote percentage, and although he will not win in New Hampshire on present polling, once the southern firewall comes into play he can follow the same path that led John McCain to the nomination.

The 2008 result is looking uncannily  like the 2012 result-same ultimate scenario with different cast of characters with the exception being the inevitable also ran Romney.

Gingrich is currently polling in front in Florida and South Carolina and it is so often South Carolina that determines who the nominee will be. Iowa on the other hand is no guarantee of ultimate victory-ask president Huckabee or the various winners of the Iowa Ames straw poll for example.

Santorum will, deservedly, have his place in the sun until new Hampshire delivers its verdict and when the voting turns south it is hard to discern any path forwards for Santorum past new Hampshire and then into Florida and South Carolina.

Santorum has on the other hand put himself well into contention for the vice-presidency, especially for Romney as he would absolutely shore up the base and remove some of Romney's Mormon problem with the fundamentalist base.

That Santorum VP scenario works well for Gingrich too and gives a counter to the Palin supporters if he doesn't choose her as Santorum would be acceptable as Palin has heaped much praise on him.

No comments :