Wednesday, January 25, 2012

New CNN Poll Shows Tie In Florida; Palin's Endorsement Announcement To Be The Decider?

CNN has a new poll out showing Gingrich and Romney in a statistical dead heat for the winner takes all Florida primary in a few days. This is more or less in keeping  with other recent polls which show Gingrich in the lead  by up to 7 points or a few points behind in one.

As the CNN analysis states Gingrich has overcome a massive deficit in a short time and it would not be surprising if the initial impetus from his South Carolina victory has not cooled off a little. 

Further, as in Iowa, once Gingrich hit the front in polling he became the subject of massive all but the kitchen sink attacks from the Romney forces-Romney,his Super Pac's, the MSM and of course the other remaining candidates as well.

What Gingrich has which none of these forces have is the potential king maker endorsement of Sarah Palin. If she endorses him just before the polls open,and she has now advised she will make  an endorsement for Florida, then the same startling result that was seen in South Carolina may well happen in Florida. 

If it does, and Gingrich wins he will be in a strong position going forwards and she will, once again, be the main force in the GOP outside of the candidates themselves.

Gingrich is at a disadvantage as the early voting, before his ascendancy in South Carolina went heavily for the then front runner Romney so he will need a large margin in the polls to over come it. 

Only a Palin endorsement could bring that result. Here is the astonishing result of Palin's previous endorsement of Gingrich for anyone who thinks she does not have that sort of power to see.

 For anyone who doubts that Sarah Palin's endorsement of Newt Gingrich in South Carolina was not a key factor in his stunning reversal of poll fortune these two Intrade graphs provide a truly striking testimony to her influence.

Remember, Intrade is where people put hard money down on predicting outcomes so there is no spin or political bias involved. Those placing bets heard Palin's words and immediately dumped Romney and bought Gingrich futures.

Look at these two intrade charts. They show the clear influence that Sarah Palin words on Tuesday evening had on the market expectations as to who was going to win and who was going to lose the SC primary as between Gingrich and Romney. 

Thanks to John a commentator at conservatives4Palin for his information on these graphs.

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